基于灰色模型的山东省“十四五”期间卫生人力资源预测研究  

Health Human Resource Prediction Based on Grey Forecasting Model During the Period of the"14th Five-Year Plan"in Shandong Province

作　　者：姜文娟 陈美伦[2] 崔瑛[1] JIANG Wenjuan;CHEN Meilun;CUI Ying(Administrative Office,Qingdao Municipal Hospital,Qingdao Shandong 266011,China;Department of Medical Research,Qingdao Municipal Hospital,Qingdao Shandong 266011,China)

机构地区：[1]青岛市市立医院医院办公室,山东青岛266011 [2]青岛市市立医院医院医学科研部,山东青岛266011

出　　处：《中国卫生标准管理》2023年第5期54-58,共5页China Health Standard Management

摘　　要：目的运用灰色预测模型(grey dynamics model,GM)(1,1)预测模型对山东省“十四五”期间(2021—2025年)卫生人力资源发展状况进行预测研究。方法选用新医改以来山东省2009—2020年卫生人力资源相关数据,对山东省卫生人力资源进行描述性分析,应用SAS 9.4软件做灰色模型预测分析。结果2009—2020年山东省卫生人员数、卫生技术人员、执业(助理)医师、注册护士均呈现增长趋势,2020年医护比增加到1︰1.08。GM(1,1)灰色预测结果显示,“十四五”期间山东省卫生人力资源数量呈稳步上升趋势,到2025年卫生人员、卫生技术人员、执业(助理)医师和注册护士分别达到129.4万、108.4万、43.9万和53.9万。结论从长期考虑,山东省卫生人力资源供给仍面临巨大挑战,需要进一步采取措施加强卫生人力资源队伍建设。Objective To use the grey dynamics model(GM)(1,1)to forecast the development of health human resources in Shandong Province during the“14th Five-Year Plan”period(2021-2025).Methods Based on the data of health human resources in Shandong Province from 2009 to 2020 since the new medical reform,the health human resources in Shandong Province were described and analyzed,and the grey model was predicted by SAS 9.4 software.Results From 2009 to 2020,an increasing trend was showed in number of health personnel,health technicians,licensed(assistant)doctors and registered nurses in Shandong Province,and the medical care ratio was increased to 1:1.08 in 2020.According to the result of GM(1,1)grey prediction,the number of health human resources in Shandong Province has been increasing steadily during the"14th Five-Year Plan"period.By 2025,the number of health personnel,health technicians,licensed(assistant)doctors and registered nurses will reach 1.294 million,1.084 million,439000 and 539000 respectively.Conclusion In the long run,the supply of health human resources in Shandong Province is still facing great challenges,and further measures should be taken to strengthen the construction of health human resources team.

关 键 词：卫生人力资源 灰色模型 GM(1 1) 预测 山东省 “十四五”期间 建议 

分 类 号：R197[医药卫生—卫生事业管理]