海南省旅游统计数据的ARIMA模型预测分析和新冠肺炎疫情影响分析  

ARIMA Model Prediction Analysis and Epidemic Impact Analysis of Tourism Statistics in Hainan Province under the COVID-19

作　　者：刘畅 李蕴峰 LIU Chang;LI Yunfeng(Harbin Natural Resources Comprehensive Survey Center,China Geological Survey,Harbin 150081,China;School of Banking&Finance,University of International Business and Economics,Beijing 100029,China)

机构地区：[1]中国地质调查局哈尔滨自然资源综合调查中心,哈尔滨150081 [2]对外经济贸易大学金融学院,北京100029

出　　处：《科技和产业》2023年第8期22-32,共11页Science Technology and Industry

基　　金：中国地质调查局省部级基金项目(DD20211584)。

摘　　要：以海南省旅游统计数据为基础,利用ARIMA模型,并结合新冠肺炎确诊人数进行预测分析。结果表明,海南省游客流量和旅游收入在新冠疫情下依然可以很大程度保持原有的增长趋势和季节性波动规律,但两组数据表现略有不同。新冠肺炎疫情对海南省旅游统计数据的影响体现在两个方面,一方面是新冠肺炎疫情严重程度与旅游统计数据存在明显此消彼长的关系,另一方面是新冠肺炎疫情主要对旅游统计数据中的游客流量产生了较大影响。可以得出政策启示:政府要做好疫情防控和让民众对旅游业持有信心,要随着疫情发展弹性放开或收紧旅游业,还要对需求侧进行扶持和对供给侧进行创新。Based on the tourism statistics in Hainan Province,the ARIMA model is used to do prediction analysis,and the data of the number of people diagnosed in COVID-19 is also used for analysis.The results shows that the tourist flow and tourism income in Hainan Province can still maintain the original growth trend and seasonal fluctuation law to a certain extent under the COVID-19 epidemic,but the two groups of data show slightly different.The impact of the COVID-19 epidemic on tourism statistics of Hainan Province is reflected in two aspects.On the one hand,there obviously exists a relation of“as one falls,another rises”between the severity of the COVID-19 epidemic and the tourism statistics.On the other hand,the COVID-19 epidemic mainly has impact on the tourist flow in tourism statistics.Policy implications can be draw the government should do a good job in epidemic prevention and control and let the people have confidence in tourism,should flexibly open or tighten the tourism industry with the development of the epidemic,should support the demand side and innovate the supply side.

关 键 词：时间序列分析 ARIMA模型 旅游统计 新冠肺炎疫情 海南省 

分 类 号：F590.8[经济管理—旅游管理]