基于旋转经验正交分解的流域降水气候预测误差订正方法  

Bias Correction Method Based on Rotated Empirical Orthogonal Function for Seasonal Precipitation Prediction on Basin Scale

作　　者：姚方玲 秦正坤[1] 林朝晖[2] 杨传国[3] 俞越 张贺[2] YAO Fangling;QIN Zhengkun;LIN Zhaohui;YANG Chuanguo;YU Yue;ZHANG He(School of Atmospheric Science,Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology,Nanjing 210044;International Center for Climate and Environment Sciences,Institute of Atmospheric Physics,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100029;College of Hydrology and Water Resources,Hohai University,Nanjing 210098;State Key Laboratory of Satellite Ocean Environment Dynamics,Second Institute of Oceanography,Ministry of Natural Resources,Hangzhou 310012)

机构地区：[1]南京信息工程大学大气科学学院,南京210044 [2]中国科学院大气物理研究所国际气候与环境科学中心,北京100029 [3]河海大学水文水资源学院,南京210098 [4]自然资源部第二海洋研究所卫星海洋环境动力学实验室,杭州310012

出　　处：《气候与环境研究》2023年第3期327-342,共16页Climatic and Environmental Research

基　　金：国家重点研发计划资助2018YFC1507302;国家自然科学基金青年项目41805076;中国气象科学研究院基本科研业务费专项2019Z006。

摘　　要：流域尺度的降水短期气候预测水平对流域的防灾减灾具有重要价值。为了进一步提高中国科学院大气物理研究所新一代大气环流模式IAP AGCM 4.1在淮河和长江流域夏季降水预测效果,利用旋转经验正交分解(Rotated Empirical Orthogonal Function,REOF)方法对两个流域夏季降水区域特征进行分析的基础上,建立了一个适用于流域的分区经验正交分解(Empirical Orthogonal Function,EOF)订正方案,并利用IAP AGCM 4.1气候预测系统在两个流域的夏季降水共30年(1981~2010年)的集合回报试验结果进行了订正试验。结果表明分区订正方法明显改进了模式对淮河流域的夏季降水预测水平,淮河流域的流域平均相关系数从0.03提高到了0.22。对长江流域的季度降水预报也有显著的改进效果,平均相关系数从−0.05提高到0.24。分区订正结果明显优于流域整体订正方案,证明了基于REOF分析确定降水具有强局地性特征的订正区域,能够很好地提高EOF订正方法的效果稳定性,这对其他流域降水预测的订正研究具有很好的借鉴意义。Short-term climate prediction of precipitation in the basin is imperative for disaster prevention and reduction in the basin.To further improve the prediction capacity of the new-generation atmospheric general circulation model,IAP AGCM 4.1 by the Institute of Atmospheric Physics of the Chinese Academy of Sciences,on the summer precipitation in the Huaihe and Yangtze River Basins,a regional Empirical Orthogonal Function(EOF)correction scheme suitable for the two river basins is established based on the analysis of the regional characteristics of the summer precipitation using the rotating EOF(REOF)method.Furthermore,the new scheme was validated based on 30-year(1981–2010)hindcasts of the IAP AGCM 4.1 climate model in the Huaihe and Yangtze River Basins.Results reveal that the new correction method significantly improves the prediction of summer precipitation in the Huaihe River Basin,with the average correlation coefficient of the Huaihe River Basin increasing from 0.03 to 0.22.Moreover,the seasonal precipitation forecast of the Yangtze River Basin is also significantly improved,with the average correlation coefficient increasing from−0.05 to 0.24.The results of the new correction method are notably better than those of previous methods based on whole-basin data,confirming that using strong local precipitation characteristics to determine the correction area based on REOF analysis can improve the effect and stability of EOF correction.The proposed method can potentially be applied to other basins as well.

关 键 词：降水预报 误差订正 流域 

分 类 号：P468[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]