基于SIR的多层次轨道交通客流拥堵传播研究  

Research on Congestion Propagation of Multi-level Rail Transit Passenger Flow Based on SIR

作　　者：贾锦秀 朱昌锋[1] 方劲皓 王傑 成琳娜[1] 安醇 JIA Jin-xiu;ZHU Chang-feng;FANG Jin-hao;WANG Jie;CHENG Lin-na;AN Chun(School of Traffic and Transportation,Lanzhou Jiaotong University,Lanzhou 730070,China)

机构地区：[1]兰州交通大学交通运输学院,兰州730070

出　　处：《兰州交通大学学报》2023年第3期39-45,共7页Journal of Lanzhou Jiaotong University

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(72161024);甘肃省教育厅“双一流”科研重点项目(GSSYLXM-04)。

摘　　要：多层次轨道交通是都市圈综合交通体系的骨干,对其客流拥堵传播规律展开研究,有利于提高运输效率。通过考虑不同运营性质车站的不同特征,引用疾病传播理论,结合轨道交通实际特点,构建了基于SIR传染病模型的多层次轨道交通客流拥堵传播模型,并定量分析模型中传播速率等重要参数。以北京市多层次轨道交通部分线网为例,比较不同时段、不同类型车站、不同恢复速率下其大客流拥堵传播速率以及拥堵影响范围的差异,并对传播速率、恢复速率、节点度、初始拥堵车站数量、网络层数等参数进行仿真。研究表明:传播速率、拥堵车站节点度和网络层数的提高显著增加拥堵传播范围,且相较于传统的单层次轨道交通网络,多层次轨道交通网络的拥堵传播范围更大;而恢复速率的增加显著减小拥堵传播范围;初始拥堵车站数量对拥堵传播范围的影响较小。Multi-level rail transit is the backbone of the comprehensive transportation system in the metropolitan area.Studying the passenger flow congestion propagation law is conducive to improving transportation efficiency.By considering the different characteristics of stations with different operational properties,adopting the theory of disease propagation and combining the actual characteristics of rail transit,a multi-level rail transit passenger flow congestion propagation model based on the susceptible-infected-recovered(SIR)epidemic model was constructed.And some important parameters such as propagation rates were quantitatively analyzed in the model.Taking part of the multi-level rail transit network in Beijing as an example,the differences of congestion propagation rate and congestion influence range of large passenger flow under different time periods,different types of stations and different recovery rates were compared.The parameters such as propagation rate,recovery rate,node degree,number of initial congested stations and number of network layers were simulated.The results show that the increase of propagation rate,congestion station node degree and number of network layers significantly increases the congestion propagation range.Compared with the traditional single-level rail transit network,the congestion propagation range of the multi-level rail transit network is larger.The increase of recovery rate significantly reduces the congestion propagation range.The number of initial congested stations has little effect on the congestion propagation range.

关 键 词：客流拥堵传播 SIR传染病模型 多层次轨道交通 传播速率 

分 类 号：U291.69[交通运输工程—交通运输规划与管理]