民用多旋翼无人机运行风险控制网络模型  

Network model of operation risk control on civil multi-rotor UAV

作　　者：岳仁田[1] 韩蒙 杨果果 YUE Rentian;HAN Meng;YANG Guoguo(College of Air Traffic Management,Civil Aviation University of China,Tianjin 300300,China)

机构地区：[1]中国民航大学空中交通管理学院,天津300300

出　　处：《中国安全生产科学技术》2023年第5期209-214,共6页Journal of Safety Science and Technology

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(U1533112);中央高校基本科研业务项目(3122022103)。

摘　　要：为降低民用多旋翼无人机运行风险,从无人机操作人员的角度建立考虑控制效果和成本的风险控制模型。首先,基于贝叶斯网络灵敏度分析确定网络中的关键节点,并提出相应的风险控制策略;然后,运用图论和目标规划理论构建风险控制网络,将单一致因因素的风险控制问题转化为风险组合控制问题;最后,建立民用多旋翼无人机运行风险控制网络模型和贝叶斯控制网络模型,优选出控制效果最好、成本最低的组合控制策略并进行分析。研究结果表明:贝叶斯网络中有9个需要重点防控的致因节点;基于贝叶斯网络的风险控制模型能够确定最优组合控制策略,组合控制策略作用后,失踪、空中碰撞、坠落和人员伤亡事故发生概率相比未采取控制策略时分别下降44.12%,66.86%,44.33%,92.98%。In order to reduce the operation risk of civil multi-rotor UAV(Unmanned Aerial Vehicle)and ensure the flight safety,a risk control model considering control effect and cost was established from the perspective of UAV operators.Firstly,the key nodes in the network were determined based on the sensitivity analysis of Bayesian network,and the corresponding risk control strategies were proposed.Secondly,a risk control network diagram was constructed by using the graph theory and goal programming theory,and the risk control problem of single causal factor was transformed into a risk combined control problem.Finally,the operation risk control network model and Bayesian control network model of civil multi-rotor UAV were established,and the combined control strategy with the best control effect and the lowest cost was determined and analyzed.The results show that there are 9 causal nodes in Bayesian network that need to be focused on prevention and control.The model can be used to determine the optimal combined control strategy.With the effect of combined control strategy The probability of missing,air collision,falling and casualty accident decreased by 44.12%,66.86%,44.33%and 92.98%compared with that without control strategy.

关 键 词：民用多旋翼无人机 贝叶斯网络 图论 目标规划 风险控制 

分 类 号：X949[环境科学与工程—安全科学] V279.2[航空宇航科学与技术—飞行器设计]