基于改进DEMATEL-ISM的国家中心城市绿色交通水平影响因素研究  

Study on Influencing Factors of Green Transport Level in National Central Cities Based on Improved DEMATEL-ISM

作　　者：谭晓伟[1] 高阳 马壮林[3] TAN Xiao-wei;GAO Yang;MA Zhuang-lin(School of Automobile,Chang'an University,Xi'an Shaanxi 710064,China;Shandong High-speed Expressway Zaozhuang Development Co.,Ltd,Zaozhuang Shandong 277000,China;School of Transportation Engineering,Chang'an University,Xi'an Shaanxi 710064,China)

机构地区：[1]长安大学汽车学院,陕西西安710064 [2]山东高速枣庄发展有限公司,山东枣庄277000 [3]长安大学运输工程学院,陕西西安710064

出　　处：《公路交通科技》2023年第4期248-255,共8页Journal of Highway and Transportation Research and Development

基　　金：教育部人文社会科学研究青年基金项目(18YJCZH130);陕西省自然科学基金项目(2021JZ-20);西安市2020年度社会科学规划基金重点项目(JG96);长安大学中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金项目(300102229304)。

摘　　要：为探究国家中心城市绿色交通水平的影响因素及其作用机理,探寻其绿色交通发展的关键因素并分析其影响程度及层级关系,结合绿色交通内涵和国家中心城市绿色交通发展特点,采用系统工程学模型构建了国家中心城市绿色交通水平影响因素体系。综合考虑人为判断的模糊性,引入灰色系统理论提出了改进的决策试验和评价试验方法(DEMATEL)和解释结构模型(ISM)耦合方法。采用改进的DEMATEL-ISM耦合方法对国家中心城市绿色交通水平影响因素的作用机理进行了有效识别。结果表明:改进的DEMATEL-ISM耦合方法能够系统分析国家中心城市绿色交通水平的关键因子和作用层级;交通拥堵为排名最高的原因因素,人均道路面积为排名最高的结果因素,分别对其绿色交通水平产生间接和直接的作用;交通安全、公交车标台数和出租车拥有量等因素处于第1层级,通过下层因素对国家中心城市绿色交通的发展产生作用和影响;人口及人口密度-轨道交通线网密度-城市化水平-交通拥堵-交通安全是影响国家中心城市绿色交通水平的主要路径;交通拥堵、交通运输支出占财政支出比例和轨道交通客运量比例为相对权重排名前3的因素,是影响绿色交通水平的关键。研究结论可为促进国家中心城市绿色交通发展、推动交通行业低碳化转型提供决策支持。In order to explore the influencing factors and mechanism of green traffic level in national central cities,explore the key factors of green traffic development and analyze the influence degree and hierarchical relationship,combining with the connotation of green transport and the development characteristics of green transport in national central cities,a system of influencing factors of green transport level in national central cities is constructed by using system engineering model.Considering the fuzziness of human judgment comprehensively,the coupling method of Decision-making Trial and Evaluation Laboratory(DEMATEL)and Interpretive Structural Modelling(ISM)is proposed by using the introduced grey system theory.The mechanism of influencing factors of green traffic level in national central cities is effectively identified by using the improved DEMATEL-ISM coupling method.The result shows that(1)the improved DEMATEL-ISM coupling method can systematically analyze the key factors and the action level of green traffic in central cities;(2)traffic congestion is the highest-ranking cause factor,and road area per capita is the highestranking result factor,which has indirect and direct effects on the level of green traffic;(3)the factors such as traffic safety,the standard number of buses and taxi ownership are in the first level,which have effect and influence on the development of green transport in central cities through the lower level factors;(4)population and population density-rail transit network density-urbanization level-traffic congestion-traffic safety is the main path that affect the green traffic level of national central cities;(5)traffic congestion,the proportion of transport expenditure in fiscal expenditure,and the proportion of rail transit passenger volume are the top 3 factors in relative weight ranking,which are the key factors affecting the level of green transport.The conclusion can provide decision support for promoting green transport development in national central cities and low-carbon tra

关 键 词：绿色交通 绿色交通水平 灰色系统理论 国家中心城市 影响因素 DEMTEL-ISM 机理分析 

分 类 号：U125[交通运输工程]