低生育率下我国学前教育托幼一体化供给潜力预测——基于2023-2035年人口趋势的研究  

The Prediction of Childcare Supply Potential of Preschool Education Resources in Urban and Rural Areas in China under the Background of Low Fertility:Based on The Demographic Trends from 2023 to 2035

作　　者：海颖 高金岭 Ying Hai;Jinling Gao(The Faculty of Education,Guangxi Normal University,Guilin 541000;College of Education,Guilin College,Guilin 541000)

机构地区：[1]广西师范大学教育学部,广西桂林541000 [2]桂林学院教育学院,广西桂林541000

出　　处：《教育与经济》2023年第3期86-94,96,共10页Education & Economy

基　　金：国家社科基金“十四五”规划2022年教育学重大课题“新时代高质量教师教育体系建设及师资供需配给研究”(项目编号:VFA220007);广西哲学社会科学规划课题“三孩生育政策背景下广西城市托育服务供给侧改革策略”(项目编号:21CRK002);广西教育科学“十四五”规划2023年重点课题“人口新形势下广西城乡托育服务供需失衡测度及对策研究”(项目编号:2023A100)。

摘　　要：我国已全面进入低生育率时代,学前教育将首先面临出生人口回落冲击,通过人口预测对我国学前教育的托幼一体化供给潜力进行测算,将有效避免资源短缺与浪费并存窘局。运用CPPS人口预测工具系统,采用孩次生育模型,以第七次人口普查数据为基年数据,综合考虑城镇化进程与教育发展目标,分城乡、分孩次对2023-2035年的出生人口数量进行预测,结果显示:我国学前教育在园幼儿规模攀峰后于2024年快速下跌,后趋于平稳,至2035年高低方案缩量约1924万和2145万;基于相关研究以24.95%的入托率测算,高(低)方案下托育学位需求量介于601万~690万(551万~643万),托幼整合迫在眉睫。应建立常态化人口监测预警机制,预防盲目布局;加大顶层设计,构建相关国家机构主导的托幼整合机制;深挖供给潜力,多措并举引导支持幼儿园转型;调整招生计划提升人才培养层次,鼓励高等院校开展早教师资一体化培养探索。China has fully entered the era of low fertility,and preschool education will bear the brunt of declining newly-born population.Through the population projection,this paper has evaluated childcare service supply potential of preschool education resources in China.The integrated planning and layout of kindergarten with nursery education will effectively avoid the coexistence of resource shortage and waste.Scenarios of population forecast are developed using the model of the parity progressive population dynamics by CPPS to estimate the urban and rural new-born from 2023 to 2035 based on China‘s seventh national population census data.Comprehensively considering urbanization process and educational development objectives,the results show that:The total number of infants will fall rapidly in 2023 and then level off to 2035 after climbing the peak,and will drop by 19.24 and 21.45 million in 2035 under the low and high plan.Based on the 24.95%enrollment rate,the demand for nursing degree is 6.01 million to 6.90 million and 5.51 million to 6.43 million.So it‘s extremely urgent to integrate kindergartens with nursery education.The following suggestions are put forward:establish normalized population monitoring and early warning system to prevent mapping out blueprint blindly;strengthen the top-level design to establish a child care integration mechanism led by relevant national institutions;deeply tap the supply potential and support kindergarten transformation by multiple measures;adjust enrollment plans for optimize talent cultivation;and encourage universities to carry out integrated training exploration of early education teachers.

关 键 词：低生育率 学前教育 托育需求 托幼一体化 供给潜力 

分 类 号：F08[经济管理—政治经济学] G40-054[文化科学—教育学原理]