基于能源结构的甘肃省CO_(2)排放现状及碳达峰情景研究  

The status quo of CO_(2) emissions and carbon peaking scenarios in Gansu Province based on energy structure

作　　者：陈恒蕤 周恒左 孔祥如 廖鹏 潘峰[1] 杨宏[1] CHEN Hengrui;ZHOU Hengzuo;KONG Xiangru;LIAO Peng;PAN Feng;YANG Hong(College of Atmosphere Sciences,Lanzhou University,Lanzhou730000,China)

机构地区：[1]兰州大学大气科学学院,兰州730000

出　　处：《环境保护科学》2023年第3期81-88,共8页Environmental Protection Science

基　　金：兰州大学中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金项目(lzujbky-2017-65)。

摘　　要：在力争实现“双碳”目标的大背景下,如何制定合适的减排路径才能较好地实现甘肃省“碳达峰”目标,成为当前亟须考虑的问题。基于2008—2017年的MEIC清单,考虑不同能源的利用效率及排放特征,对IPAT等式进行本地化修正,计算了2005—2020年甘肃省的CO_(2)排放量,并设计3种情景,研究了不同发展路径下甘肃省CO_(2)的排放情况。研究发现,2005—2020年甘肃省CO_(2)排放量呈现波动上升趋势,且煤炭对于CO_(2)排放的贡献最大、天然气贡献最小,石油和电力的CO_(2)排放贡献则在逐年升高;甘肃省CO_(2)排放最大的市(州)依次是兰州、嘉峪关、白银,在现有发展空间布局下嘉峪关、白银、平凉碳减排的潜力更大;在3种发展情景中,清洁发展情景是较为适合经济欠发达的甘肃省的发展路径,此情景下全省可在2028年左右实现达峰,峰值排放量1.87亿吨,2060年CO_(2)排放量为峰值的50.5%。In the context of striving to achieve the“carbon neutrality”and“emission peak”goals,formulating a suitable emission reduction path to effectively achieve the goal of"carbon peak"in Gansu Province has become an urgent issue to be considered.Based on the MEIC inventory from 2008 to 2017 and considering the utilization efficiency and emission characteristics of different energy sources,the IPAT equation was localized and modified.The CO_(2) emissions of Gansu Province from 2005 to 2020 were calculated,and 3 scenarios were designed to study the CO_(2) emissions under different development paths in Gansu Province.The results showed that from 2005 to 2020,the CO_(2) emissions in Gansu Province showed a fluctuating upward trend,with the coal contributing the most of CO_(2) emissions and the natural gas contributing the least,and the CO_(2) emissions of oil and electricity increased year by year.The cities with the highest CO_(2) emissions in Gansu Province were Lanzhou,Jiayuguan,and Baiyin.Under the existing development space layout,Jiayuguan,Baiyin,and Pingliang had a greater potential for carbon emission reduction.Among the 3 development scenarios,the clean development scenario was more suitable as a development path for the economically less-derdeveloped Gansu Province.Under this scenario,Gansu province could achieve its"carbon peak"around 2028,with a peak emission of 187 million tons,and CO_(2) emissions in 2060 would be 50.5%of the peak.

关 键 词：甘肃省 能源结构 修正的IPAT等式 达峰情景研究 

分 类 号：X22[环境科学与工程—环境科学]