自主船舶操纵系统可靠度和灵敏性分析  

Reliability and Sensitivity Analysis of Autonomous Ship Maneuvering System

作　　者：白旭[1] 凌浩 罗小芳[2] 杨立[3] 李永正[1] BAI Xu;LING Hao;LUO Xiaofang;YANG Li;LI Yongzheng(Jiangsu University of Science and Technology,School of Naval Architecture and Ocean Engineering,Zhenjiang 212003,Jiangsu,China;Jiangsu University of Science and Technology,School of Economics and Management,Zhenjiang 212003,Jiangsu,China;Shanghai Branch of China Ship Science Research Center,Shanghai 20001l,China)

机构地区：[1]江苏科技大学船舶与海洋工程学院,江苏镇江212003 [2]江苏科技大学经济管理学院,江苏镇江212003 [3]中国船舶科学研究中心上海分部,上海200011

出　　处：《船舶工程》2023年第3期112-119,共8页Ship Engineering

基　　金：广东省重点研发计划项目(2020B1111500001)。

摘　　要：当前自主船舶操纵系统的故障样本较少,相关设备的原始故障数据存在主观性参数,基于这些数据的可靠性分析会受到认知不确定性的影响。为此,采用证据理论处理不确定性问题,采用贝叶斯网络进行可靠性分析,计算自主船舶操纵系统的可靠性指标。通过计算重要度来定量分析基本设备单元的灵敏性,诊断自主船舶操纵系统的薄弱环节,为设计优化和维修检测提供依据。研究表明:采用证据理论与贝叶斯网络相结合的方法能有效降低自主船舶操纵系统的可靠度和灵敏性分析中认知不确定性带来的影响;各项可靠性指标显示,柴油机和空气处理设备为系统的薄弱环节。Maneuvering system is an important part of autonomous ship,due to the few failure samples,the original fault data of autonomous ship maneuvering system equipment have subjective parameters,which will produce epistemic uncertainty in the process of reliability analysis.Therefore,the evidence theory is used to deal with uncertainty and Bayesian network is used for reliability analysis and calculate the reliability index of the autonomous ship maneuvering system.Quantitatively analyze the sensitivity of the basic equipment units by calculating importance,diagnose weak links in autonomous ship maneuvering systems,and provide a basis for design optimization and maintenance inspection.The research shows that the method can solve the influence of epistemic uncertainty in the process of system reliability and sensitivity analysis,comprehensive reliability indexes show that diesel engine and air treating unit are the weak links of the system.

关 键 词：操纵系统 灵敏性分析 认知不确定性 证据理论 贝叶斯网络 自主船舶 

分 类 号：U664.82[交通运输工程—船舶及航道工程]