基于ARIMA模型企业自由现金流量的预测  

Prediction of Free Cash Flow of Enterprises Based on ARIMA Model

作　　者：徐路钧 赵戊生[2] XU Lujun;ZHAO Wusheng(Guangxi University of Science and Technology,Liuzhou 545000,China;Guangxi University of Science and Technology Asset Management Co.,Ltd.,Liuzhou 545000,China)

机构地区：[1]广西科技大学经济管理学院,广西柳州545000 [2]广西科技大学资产管理有限公司,广西柳州545000

出　　处：《商业观察》2023年第20期41-47,共7页BUSINESS OBSERVATION

摘　　要：企业间并购、重组、上市等经济活动随着经济体制的改革开始变得频繁,这也使得企业价值评估的需求增多。企业是市场经济中心的主体,其发展与市场经济关联紧密。企业自由现金流量是衡量企业发展情况的标准之一。文章对企业自由现金流量进行了理论研究并做了预测方法比对,还对ARIMA模型的原理、优势及适用性进行分析,最终选择应用ARIMA模型对企业自由现金流量进行预测分析,以Y公司为例预测了其企业自由现金流量并用移动平均法预测,进行比对进而证明ARIMA模型预测的准确性。With the reform of the economic system,economic activities such as mergers and acquisitions,restructuring,and listing among en-terprises have become more frequent,which have also increased the demand for enterprise value evaluation.Enterprise is the central theme of the market economy,whose development is closely related to the market economy.Free cash flow of enterprises is one of the standards to mea-sure the development of enterprises.This paper conducts theoretical research on free cash flow of enterprises and makes comparison of forecast-ing methods.It also analyzes the principle,advantages and applicability of ARIMA model,and finally chooses the ARIMA model to forecast free cash flow of enterprises.Taking Y Company.as an example,it forecasts its free cash flow of enterprises and compares it with the moving av-erage method forecast to prove the accuracy of ARIMA model forecast.

关 键 词：ARIMA模型 企业自由现金流量 计量经济 

分 类 号：F406.7[经济管理—产业经济]