FLUS与灰色预测模型支持下的乌鲁木齐地区碳排放时空演变与预测  

Spatio-temporal Evolution and Prediction of Carbon Emissions in Urumqi Region Based on FLUS and Grey Prediction Model

作　　者：凯吾沙·塔依尔 黎华[1] 古丽米热·艾尔肯 尹章才[1] 吴浩 TAYIER Kaiwusha;LI Hua;AIERKEN Gulimire;YIN Zhangcai;WU Hao(School of Resource and Environmental Engineering,Wuhan University of Technology,Wuhan 430070;Bureau of Natural Resources Qitai County Changji Prefecture Xinjiang,Changji,Xinjiang 831800;The College of Urban and Environmental Sciences,Central China Normal University,Wuhan 430079)

机构地区：[1]武汉理工大学资源与环境工程学院,武汉430070 [2]新疆昌吉州奇台县自然资源局,新疆昌吉831800 [3]华中师范大学城市与环境科学学院,武汉430079

出　　处：《水土保持学报》2023年第4期214-226,共13页Journal of Soil and Water Conservation

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(42071358,42171415)。

摘　　要：自从“双碳”目标提出以来,进行土地利用碳排放时空变化特征研究对碳减排政策的制定具有指导意义。以乌鲁木齐地区为对象,基于FLUS与灰色预测模型预测2030年土地利用碳排放量,并与往年相结合模拟研究区2000—2030年碳排放量的时空格局变化。结果表明:(1)研究区2000—2020土地利用变化中林地、未利用地、水域、建设用地为正增长,耕地与草地为负增长,草地与耕地面积主要是向未利用地与建设用地转出,水域与林地面积变化相对比较稳定。(2)2000—2020年碳排放总量呈增加的趋势,建设用地是主要的决定因素,研究区碳排放量呈“由南向北递增”的空间分布特点,米东区最高,达坂城区最低。(3)2030年不同情景碳排放量计算结果中,耕地保护情景碳排放总量最高,为2773.67万t,生态环境情景碳排放量最低,为2767.15万t。(4)研究区从2000—2030年大部分地区趋于稳定,变化的区域呈大聚集与零星分布的特点,碳排放呈增加的区域主要分布于研究区中心区与北部的米东区,呈减少的区域主要分布于南部的乌鲁木齐县与达坂城区。碳排放增加的区域在耕地保护情景达到最大,占研究区面积的25.4%,碳排放减少的区域在生态环境达到最大,占研究区面积的13.3%。Since the“two-carbon goal”was proposed,the research on the spatial-temporal variation characteristics of land use carbon emissions is of guiding significance for the formulation of carbon emission reduction policies.Based on FLUS and grey prediction model,land use carbon emissions in 2030 were predicted in Urumqi,and the spatial-temporal pattern of carbon emissions from 2000 to 2030 was simulated by combining with previous years.The results were as follows:(1)During the land use change in the study area from 2000 to 2020,the forest land,unused land,water area and construction land showed positive growth,while the arable land and grassland showed negative growth.The area of grassland and cultivated land was mainly transferred to unused land and construction land,and the area change of water area and woodland was relatively stable.(2)The total carbon emissions in the study area showed an increasing trend from 2000 to 2020,and construction land was the main determinant.The spatial distribution of carbon emissions in the study area showed an increasing trend from south to north,with the highest carbon emissions in Midong District and the lowest carbon emissions in Daban District.(3)In the calculation results of carbon emissions under different scenarios in 2030,the total carbon emissions under cultivated land protection scenario were the highest(27.7367 million t),while the carbon emissions under ecological environment scenario were the lowest(27.6715 million t).(4)From 2000 to 2030,most areas of the study area tended to be stable,with large aggregation and sporadic distribution of the changing areas.The increasing area of carbon emission was mainly distributed in the central area of the study area and Midong District in the north,while the decreasing area was mainly distributed in Urumqi County and Dabancheng District in the south.The area with the largest increase in carbon emission was in the cultivated land protection scenario,accounting for 25.4%of the study area.The area with the largest decrease in carbon

关 键 词：土地利用碳排放 FLUS模型 灰色预测模型 时空演变 预测 

分 类 号：X171.1[环境科学与工程—环境科学] F301.24[经济管理—产业经济]