城市轨道交通运营中断下客流分配方法  

Passenger flow distribution method under urban rail transit operation interruption

作　　者：周慧娟[1,2] 瓮冬阳 李蓓 吴文祥[1] 张蜇 ZHOU Huijuan;WENG Dongyang;LI Bei;WU Wenxiang;ZHANG Zhe(Beijing Key Laboratory of Intelligent Control Technology for Urban Road Traffic,North China University of Technology,Beijing 100144,China;State Key Laboratory of Rail Traffic Control and Safety,Beijing Jiaotong University,Beijing 100044,China;Institute of Transportation Engineering,Tsinghua University,Beijing 100084,China)

机构地区：[1]北方工业大学城市道路交通智能控制技术北京市重点实验室,北京100144 [2]北京交通大学轨道交通控制与安全国家重点实验室,北京100044 [3]清华大学交通研究所,北京100084

出　　处：《中国安全科学学报》2023年第6期144-151,共8页China Safety Science Journal

基　　金：轨道交通控制与安全国家重点实验室(北京交通大学)开放课题基金资助(RCS2022K007);国家自然科学基金资助(72271006)。

摘　　要：为准确掌握城市轨道交通线路运营中断条件下的客流分布状态,提升轨道交通应急处置与决策水平,首先,综合考虑列车拥挤度和换乘行为等因素对乘客出行路径影响,构建基于乘客出行路径的阻抗函数,计算出行阻抗的均值和方差,设定选择有效路径的判定条件;其次,充分考虑乘客面对风险和不确定环境下决策行为的有限理性,基于累积前景理论,分析线路中断下乘客路径选择策略,设定基于出行时间的内生参考点,计算乘客出行路径的累积前景值;最后,建立城市轨道交通中断下网络客流分配的Logit型随机均衡模型,利用连续平均算法(MSA)进行求解,通过Matlab编程实现各路径上流量的加权分配,并以北京地铁5号线实际中断事件为例,验证模型的可行性和有效性。结果表明:在各路段断面,该模型的客流分配结果与北京地铁断面客流的实际数据的误差率均在±10%以内,能够有效识别和掌握中断下乘客路径选择行为,且能够较为准确识别拥堵路段状况。To accurately grasp the passenger flow distribution status under the condition of urban rail transit line operation interruption and improve the level of rail transit emergency response and decision-making,firstly,comprehensively considering the impact of train congestion and transfer behavior on passenger travel path,an impedance function based on passenger travel path was constructed to calculate the mean and variance of travel impedance and set the judgment conditions for selecting an effective path.Secondly,fully considering the limited rationality of passengers'risk and decision-making behavior in uncertain environment,the strategy of passenger route selection under line interruption was studied and analyzed based on cumulative prospect theory,the endogenous reference point based on travel time was set,and the cumulative foreground value of passenger travel path was calculated.Finally,a Logit-type stochastic equilibrium model of network passenger flow distribution under urban rail transit interruption was established.The model was solved by method of successive algorithm(MSA)and the weighted distribution of traffic on each path was realized by Matlab programming.The feasibility and validity of the model were verified by taking the actual interruption event of Beijing Metro Line 5 as an example.The results show that the error rate between the passenger flow distribution results of this model and the actual data of the passenger flow of Beijing Metro section is within±10%at each section,which can effectively identify and master the passenger route selection behavior under interruption,and can accurately identify the congested section conditions.

关 键 词：城市轨道交通 运营中断 客流分配 累积前景理论 随机均衡 

分 类 号：X951[环境科学与工程—安全科学]