基于Meta分析研究气候变化对中国小麦籽粒蛋白质含量的影响  

Effects of climate change on the protein content of wheat grains in China using Meta-analysis

作　　者：孔祥飞 李超[2] 杨广[3] 侯冠群 柳为 许新港 欧阳竹[1,4] 侯瑞星 KONG Xiangfei;LI Chao;YANG Guang;HOU Guanqun;LIU Wei;XU Xingang;OUYANG Zhu;HOU Ruixing(Key Laboratory of Ecosystem Network Observation and Modeling,Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100101,China;Public Meteorological Service Centre of China Meteorological Administration,Beijing 100081,China;College of Water Conservancy&Architectural Engineering,Shihezi University,Shihezi 832000,China;University of Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100049,China)

机构地区：[1]中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所,生态系统网络观测与模拟重点实验室,北京100101 [2]中国气象局公共气象服务中心,北京100081 [3]石河子大学水利建筑工程学院,石河子832000 [4]中国科学院大学,北京100049

出　　处：《农业工程学报》2023年第11期118-127,共10页Transactions of the Chinese Society of Agricultural Engineering

基　　金：中国科学院战略性先导科技专项(XDA28130301,XDA23050102);国家自然科学基金项目(32071607,U1803244,51769030,52269006);中国气象局青年创新团队计划(CMA2023QN02);兵团科技攻关计划项目(2021AB021);兵团科技合作计划项目(2022BC001);石河子大学科技项目(CXRC201801,RCZK2018C22)。

摘　　要：气候变化相关的环境因素可能会影响谷物营养质量。气候变化引起的CO_(2)浓度升高、温度升高、降水量变化对作物营养质量的影响,特别是在中国范围内对谷物蛋白质含量的影响尚未量化。为此,该研究对中国各试验站点的现有文献数据进行Meta分析,并利用中国小麦籽粒蛋白质含量数据结合气象数据评估关键气候因素对中国主要小麦种植区小麦籽粒蛋白质含量的影响。Meta分析结果表明,增温显著提升了小麦籽粒蛋白质含量(P<0.05),CO_(2)浓度上升显著降低了小麦籽粒蛋白质含量,降水对小麦籽粒蛋白质含量影响较为复杂。温度升高可以部分抵消由于CO_(2)升高和降水对小麦籽粒蛋白质产生的负面影响。2010-2018年各省份小麦生育期内平均气温呈升高趋势,在所有调查的研究区内,小麦总生育期平均温度约上升了1.27℃,不同小麦种植区内生育期平均气温变化趋势存在差异。中国不同小麦产区籽粒蛋白质含量对生育期平均温度的响应以正向为主,并且生殖生长阶段的平均温度在小麦籽粒蛋白质含量变率中起主导作用。研究结果可为气候变化对小麦籽粒蛋白质含量的影响提供科学依据,有助于区域决策,制定适当的气候变化适应战略,以促进中国的可持续农业和营养安全。Nutritional quality of cereals can depend mainly on the environmental factors subjected to climate warming in recent years.It is still lacking on the effects of the increase of CO_(2) concentration,temperature,and precipitation caused by climate change on the nutritional quality of crops.In this study,a meta-analysis was performed on the existing literature data of various experimental sites.The protein content of wheat grains was combined with the meteorological parameters using a mixed linear model,fixed regression,and random residual analysis.A systematic evaluation was then made on the influence of key growth temperature on the protein content of wheat grains in the main wheat growing areas in China.A linear mixed model was used with the random intercept and slope in each region.The average sensitivity of grain protein content was calculated at the different stages of temperature(wheat total growth period temperature,vegetative growth period mean temperature and reproductive growth period mean temperature).The meta-analysis showed that the protein content in the wheat grain was significantly enhanced by warming(P<0.05),whereas,there was a significant decrease with the increasing CO_(2) concentration.A complex variation was found in the precipitation of the protein content in the wheat grain.The increase in temperature partially offset the negative effects of CO_(2) increase and precipitation on the wheat grain protein.Meanwhile,an upward trend was found in the average temperature in all provinces during the growth period of wheat from 2010 to 2018.Specifically,the average temperature increased by about 1.27 ℃ in the total growth period of wheat,indicating the different change trend of the average temperature in different wheat growing areas.The grain protein content in the different wheat-producing areas also responded positively to the average temperature in the growth period.The average temperature in the reproductive growth stage also dominated the variation in the protein content in the wheat grains.Som

关 键 词：气候变化 营养品质 蛋白质含量 Meta分析 小麦 

分 类 号：S5121[农业科学—作物学]