1884-2016年中国香港气候变化特征及其分析  

The Characteristics and Analysis of China,Hong Kong's Climate Change from 1884 to 2016

作　　者：曾振柄[1] 魏昙荣 孙翔 ZENG Zhenbing;WEI Tanrong;SUN Xiang(Department of Mathematics,Shanghai University,Shanghai 200444)

机构地区：[1]上海大学理学院数学系,上海200444

出　　处：《系统科学与数学》2023年第6期1536-1554,共19页Journal of Systems Science and Mathematical Sciences

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(12071282,12171159)资助课题。

摘　　要：根据中国香港天文台1884-2016年之间观测的气候数据资料(其中1940-1946年间有数据缺失),利用Mann-Kendall趋势检验法,滑动t检验,小波变换和交叉小波变换对中国香港气候进行分析.Mann-Kendall趋势分析和滑动t检验结果表明,在前半段即1884-1939年期间,中国香港年平均最低与最高气温增长速率基本一致,在后半段,即1947-2016年期间,平均最低气温增长速率显著高于年平均最高气温增长速率.对气温序列进行突变检验时,对1940-1946年缺失数据用邻近的中国澳门地区的数据进行修正后替代,检验表明中国香港气温在1958年发生显著的均值突变,1997年是否是突变点存疑.小波变换得到中国香港气温和降水存在多尺度周期变化,其中气温和降水的第一主周期分别为52a和42a;交叉小波分析显示ENSO特征值Nino3.4、SOI与气温、降水在全时间段上相关性不显著,但存在局部相关性.This paper analyzes the climate change of Hong Kong,China based on the climate data of Hong Kong,China observatory from 1884 to 1939,and from1947 to 2016,using the Mann-Kendall trend test,the t-test,the wavelet transform,and the cross-wavelet transform.The results of the Mann-Kendall test and the ttest show that during the first period from 1884 to 1939,the growth rates of the annual average minimal and maximal temperatures in Hong Kong,China are equal,while in the second period from 1947 to 2016,the growth rate of the annual average minimal temperatures is significantly higher than that of the annual average maximal temperatures.For doing the temperature mutation test,the missing data of the period from 1940 to 1946 is has been imputed by China,Macao's data in the same period with appropriate modification.The result shows that the temperature had a significant mean abrupt change in 1958 in Hong Kong,China,and 1997 was a suspected year of abrupt change.The wavelet transform shows that there exist multi-scale periodic changes in temperature and precipitation in Hong Kong,China,where the first major periods of temperature and precipitation were 52a and 42a respectively;the crosswavelet analysis shows that the ENSO characteristic values Nino3.4 and SOI,the correlation with temperature,and precipitation in the whole time is not significant,but there exists a local correlation.

关 键 词：气候变化 突变检测 ENSO 小波变换 交叉小波变换 

分 类 号：P467[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]