基于CMA-MESO模式的黑龙江省强对流天气分类预报方法研究  

Research on classification forecast method of severe convective weatherin Heilongjiang province based on CMA-MESO

作　　者：刘松涛[1] 高梦竹 齐铎[1] 王承伟[1] LIU Songtao;GAO Mengzhu;QI Duo;WANG Chengwei(Heilongjiang Meteorological Observatory,Harbin 150030,China)

机构地区：[1]黑龙江省气象台,黑龙江哈尔滨150030

出　　处：《气象与环境学报》2023年第4期38-46,共9页Journal of Meteorology and Environment

基　　金：国家重点研发计划“重大自然灾害监测预警与防范”重点专项“我国北方局地突发性强降水机理及预报方法研究”专题五(2018YFC1507305);中国气象局复盘总结专项项目(FPZJ2023-038);黑龙江省气象局“智能网格预报及数值模式释用”创新团队共同资助。

摘　　要：利用欧洲中心再分析数据(ERA5)、中国气象局中尺度数值预报模式(CMA-MESO)产品和自动站资料,计算动力条件、不稳定层结、水汽条件、特征层高度等对流参数,统计雷暴大风和短时强降水两类强对流天气的对流参数分位值统计量特征,以及与气候值的偏差特征。结果表明:短时强降水更易在水汽含量大、中低层大气接近饱和的湿热环境中发生,中低层抬升作用触发降水并增强降水效率,水汽条件是短时强降水的关键。雷暴大风容易在气温直减率大的环境中出现,有利条件为中层干燥、低层湿润、垂直风切变大、CAPE大。采用相对偏差模糊矩阵评价法,进行黑龙江省两类强对流天气的分类预报,检验结果表明,该方法能有效预报最可能发生强对流的区域和时间,预报效果较好,预报偏差bias短时强降水为0.7,雷暴大风为1.04,空报漏报率合理。Using the European center reanalysis data(ERA5),China Meteorological Administration mesoscale numerical prediction model(CMA-MESO)products and automatic station data,the convection parameters such as dynamic conditions,unstable stratification,water vapor conditions,and characteristic layer height were calculated,and the statistical characteristics of the quantile value of convection parameters for thunderstorm gale and short-term heavy rainfall,as well as the deviation characteristics of the climate value were counted.The results show that short-term heavy rainfall is more likely to occur in the middle and lower atmosphere which is nearly saturated in the humid and hot environment with high water vapor content.The uplift of the middle and lower layers triggers precipitation and enhances precipitation efficiency.Water vapor condition is the key to short-term heavy rainfall.Thunderstorm gale is easy to happen in the environment with large temperature drop rate,and especially for the conditions with dryness in the middle layer,wetness in the low layer,large vertical wind shear and large Cape.By using the relative deviation fuzzy matrix evaluation method,the classification forecast of two types of severe convective weather in Heilongjiang province is tested.The results show that the method can effectively predict the area and time in which severe convection is most likely to happen and has a good forecast effect and the reasonable rate of missing and falsity.The forecast BIAS is 0.7 for short-term heavy rainfall and 1.04 for thunderstorm gale.

关 键 词：短时强降水 对流参数 雷暴大风 

分 类 号：P468[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]