基于BOA-LSSVM的电力推进船舶负荷预测  

Load forecasting of electric propulsion ship based on BOA-LSSVM

作　　者：舒方舟 王莹 戴晓强[1,3] 刘维亭 SHU Fang-zhou;WANG Ying;DAI Xiao-qiang;LIU Wei-ting(College of Automation,Jiangsu University of Science and Technology,Zhenjiang 212100,China;College of Computer Science,Jiangsu University of Science and Technology,Zhenjiang 212100,China;Zhoushan Jiangke Ship and Marine Engineering Equipment Research and Development Center,Zhoushan 212316,China)

机构地区：[1]江苏科技大学自动化学院,江苏镇江212100 [2]江苏科技大学计算机学院,江苏镇江212100 [3]舟山市江科船舶与海洋工程装备研发中心,浙江舟山212316

出　　处：《舰船科学技术》2023年第20期159-166,共8页Ship Science and Technology

基　　金：舟山科技项目(2022C13034);江苏省产业前瞻与共性关键技术重点项目(BE2018007-2)。

摘　　要：船舶电力系统容量小,负荷波动性强,船舶电力负荷预测对于船舶电力系统的稳定性和安全性意义重大。本文提出一种能够对船舶电力负荷进行有效且准确的负荷预测方法,在传统的以最小二乘支持向量机作为船舶电力负荷预测方法的基础上,将变种卡方核函数与RBF核函数相结合,同时支持向量机的正则化参数C和标准化参数σ的取值对预测精度影响较大,故使用改进的蝴蝶优化算法对预测模型中的参数以及变种卡方核函数的权重系数进行寻优。仿真结果表明,本文提出的预测方法将负荷预测精度提升至97.5119%,因变种卡方核函数的引入,算法能够对特征向量分量权重进行自动调节,并且经蝴蝶优化算法进行参数寻优后的预测模型更为准确,船舶电力负荷预测精度得到进一步提升。Ship power system has small capacity and strong load fluctuation.Ship power load forecasting is of great significance to the stability and security of ship power system.This paper presents an effective and accurate load forecasting method for ship power load.Based on the traditional least square support vector machine algorithm as the ship power load forecasting method,the variant chi square kernel function and RBF kernel function are combined,and the regularization parameter C and the normalization parameterσof the support vector machine algorithm have great influence on the prediction accuracy.Therefore,the improved butterfly optimization algorithm is used to optimize the parameters in the prediction model and the weight coefficient of the variant chi square kernel function.The simulation results show that the forecasting method proposed in this paper improves the load forecasting accuracy to 97.5119%.Due to the introduction of the variant chi square kernel function,the algorithm can automatically adjust the weight of the eigenvector component,and the forecasting model optimized by the butterfly optimization algorithm is more accurate,and the forecasting accuracy of the ship power load is further improved.

关 键 词：电力推进船舶 负荷预测 支持向量机 组合核函数 蝴蝶优化算法 

分 类 号：U664.3[交通运输工程—船舶及航道工程]