谁是“双减”政策影响的目标群体?——参加校外学科培训的影响因素及效应分析  

Who is the Target Population of China s Clampdown on Tutoring?The Determinants and Impacts of Off-Campus Tutoring in China

作　　者：黄国英 范皑皑[2] Guoying Huang;Aiai Fan(School of Government,Shenzhen University,Shenzhen 518055;Graduate School of Education Institute of Economics of Education,Peking University,Beijing 100871)

机构地区：[1]深圳大学政府管理学院,广东深圳518055 [2]北京大学教育学院教育经济研究所,北京100871

出　　处：《教育与经济》2023年第5期45-53,共9页Education & Economy

基　　金：全国教育科学规划一般项目“农民工返乡子女学校适应困境与整合性干预机制研究”(BFA210074)。

摘　　要：本研究基于中国家庭追踪调查2018年调查数据,使用Logit回归和倾向值逆概率加权(IPTW)模型评估“双减”政策对校外学科培训所影响的目标人群和对儿童学业成绩产生的可能影响。研究结果显示,儿童参加校外学科培训存在普遍性和阶层分化的特征。参加校外学科培训对儿童的数学认知能力测验得分有轻微的正向提升作用,这一正向作用仅限于居住在城市或父亲学历在高中以上、数学成绩好等具有更高的参加学科培训倾向的儿童。通过将倾向值逆概率加权和复杂抽样设计结合分析,这一研究结果具备推论到全国总体的有效性。With the prevalence of off-campus tutoring in China,which caused heavy family financial burdens and study pressure among students,China introduced comprehensive managements to regulate off-campus tutoring to ease burden on students in 2021.This study draws upon data from the 2018 China Family Panel Studies to explore who the target population is of this so-called“Double Reduction”policy and whether the policy impacts children s educational performance.The empirical analyses show that off-campus tutoring is widespread and differentiated among Chinese families.Furthermore,the inverse probability of treatment weighting(IPTW)method is applied to estimate the effect of off-campus tutoring in students at compulsory stage.By accounting for the survey design of complex survey data,the results indicate some positive causal effects of off-campus tutoring on children s cognitive tests scores.By combining inverse probability weighting of propensity values with complex sampling design,this conclusion can be generalized to the national population..

关 键 词：“双减”政策 学科培训 倾向值逆概率加权 

分 类 号：F08[经济管理—政治经济学] G40-054[文化科学—教育学原理]