东南沿海不同路径台风危险性研究  

Typhoon hazard assessment under different tracks on the southeast coast of China

作　　者：尹玉环 肖桂荣[1] 周侯伯 Yin Yuhuan;Xiao Guirong;Zhou Houbo(The Academy of Digital China(Fujian),Fuzhou University,Fuzhou 350108,China;Institute of Urban Environment,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Xiamen 361021,China)

机构地区：[1]福州大学数字中国研究院,福建福州350108 [2]中国科学院城市环境研究所,福建厦门361021

出　　处：《海南大学学报（自然科学版）》2023年第4期387-396,共10页Natural Science Journal of Hainan University

基　　金：中央引导地方科技发展专项(2020L3005);中国科学院A类战略性先导科技专项(XDA23100504).

摘　　要：本文基于东南沿海地区1960—2019年台风路径数据,结合台风风场参数模型对不同类别的路径进行了风速模拟,并在此基础上进行了重现期风速估计,分析了不同类别台风路径的危险性差异.研究结果表明:①登陆东南沿海地区的台风路径主要有西北直行类台风(西北行台风、远西北行台风)和东北转向型台风,其中西北直行类台风数量最多且整体呈下降的趋势,东北转向型台风约占1/3,近20年呈上升的趋势;②不同路径台风的影响范围具有明显差异,东北转向类台风的影响范围明显大于西北直行类台风的影响范围;③远西北行台风极值风速最高,西北行台风极值风速最低,即远西北行台风危险性最大,并由东向西呈阶梯状递减.In the report,based on the typhoon track data from 1960 to 2019 years on the southeast coastal areas of China and the wind field parameter model,the wind speed simulation for different types of tracks was per-formed,on which the return period wind speed estimation was obtained,and the hazard differences for different classes of typhoon tracks were analyzed.The results showed that:(1)The typhoon tracks in the southeastern coastal areas mainly contain three classes,corresponding to northwest straight typhoons(i.e.,northwest-travel typhoons and far northwest-travel typhoons)and northeast turning typhoons.Among them,the number of north-west straight typhoons is the largest and the overall trend is declining.Moreover,the northeast-turning typhoons account for 1/3,showing an upward trend in the past 20 years.The number of such typhoons has increased in El Nino years.(2)There is a significant difference in coverage of influence for different typhoon tracks.Among them,northeast-turning typhoons have a larger coverage of influence compared with northwest-straight ty-phoons.(3)The extremum wind speed of far northwest-travel typhoons is the highest,while northwest-travel ty-phoons are the lowest.The results showed that the far northwest-travel typhoons have the largest hazard,show-ing a decrease in a step-like manner from east to west.Our findings provide a new reference for wind resistance design and disaster prevention and mitigation in the southeast coastal area.

关 键 词：台风路径 路径危险性 风速估计 极值风速 重现期 

分 类 号：S424[农业科学—植物保护] X43[环境科学与工程—灾害防治]