基于云模型和D-S证据理论的岩溶盾构隧道掌子面稳定性评价  

Stability Evaluation of Working Faces in Karstic of Shield Tunnels in Karst Based on Cloud Model and D-S Evidence Theory

作　　者：王祥 陈发达 吴贤国[2] 冯宗宝 陈虹宇[3] WANG Xiang;CHEN Fada;WU Xianguo;FENG Zongbao;CHEN Hongyu(Guiyang Urban Rail Transit Co.,Ltd.,Guiyang 550091,China;School of Civil and Hydraulic Engineering,Huazhong University of Science and Technology,Wuhan 430074,China;School of Civil and Environmental Engineering,Nanyang Technological University,Singapore 639798,Singapore)

机构地区：[1]贵阳城市轨道交通有限公司,贵阳550091 [2]华中科技大学土木与水利工程学院,武汉430074 [3]南洋理工大学土木工程与环境学院,新加坡639798

出　　处：《工业建筑》2023年第11期65-72,共8页Industrial Construction

摘　　要：岩溶地区盾构掘进过程中,复杂地质环境对隧道掌子面稳定性产生较大影响,进而引发开挖面失稳等安全问题。为准确评价掌子面稳定性,降低施工风险,提出一种基于云模型和D-S证据理论的安全评价方法,考虑影响因素的复杂性,解决评价信息的模糊不确定性及高冲突问题。根据大量工程实践和文献研究,从岩溶、施工以及围岩影响三个方面建立一套掌子面稳定性评价体系和标准。以云模型获取评价指标对于风险等级的关联度,继而转化为基本概率分配,利用D-S证据理论对多源证据信息进行融合和更新,实现掌子面安全风险实时评价,并基于全局敏感度确定敏感性因素。实例应用结果表明:评价段掌子面稳定性等级为Ⅱ级,能够保持相对稳定,与实际施工情况相符。During tunnelling with tunnel boring machines in karst,the complex geological environment has a larger impact on the stability of working faces of tunnels,the tunnel palm face,which would caused risks led to safety problems such as destabilization of working faces.the excavation face.In order To accurately evaluate the stability of working faces palm face and reduce construction risks,a safety evaluation method based on the cloud model and the D-S evidence theory was proposed to consider the complexity of effect influencing factors,which could solve the problem of fuzzy uncertainty and high conflict of evaluation information.Based on a large number of engineering practices and literature research,a set of palm face stability evaluation systems and criteria for working faces was established from 3 aspects:karst,construction and the influence of surrounding rock.The cloud model was used to obtain the correlation degree of evaluation indexes for risk levels and then transformed into basic probability assignment,and the D-S evidence theory was used to fuse and update the multi-source evidence information to realize the real-time evaluation of palm face for safety risk of working faces and determine the sensitivity factors based on the global sensitivity.The results of the practical application indicated that the stability grade for working faces grade of the palm face of the evaluated section wasⅡand could keep can maintain relative stability,that was consistent with the actual construction situation.It shows the effectiveness and accuracy of the model application,and provides reference and for solving the palm face stability evaluation problems of similar projects.

关 键 词：岩溶地区 盾构隧道 掌子面稳定性 云模型 D-S证据理论 敏感性分析 

分 类 号：U231.3[交通运输工程—道路与铁道工程] U455.43[建筑科学—桥梁与隧道工程]