农业“保险+期货”模式的运行机制与试点评价  

Operating Mechanism and Pilot Evaluation of the Agricultural"Insurance+Futures"Mode

作　　者：高万东 吕鹰飞 GAO Wandong;LV Yingfei(Economics Management College,Weifang University of Science and Technology,Shouguang Shandong 262700;School of Finance,Changchun Finance College,Changchun Jilin 130124)

机构地区：[1]潍坊科技学院经济管理学院,山东寿光262700 [2]长春金融高等专科学校金融学院,吉林长春130124

出　　处：《经济纵横》2023年第11期95-102,共8页Economic Review Journal

基　　金：2023年中国金融教育发展基金会专项研究资助项目“数字普惠金融和农村金融市场结构重塑与优化研究”和吉林省金融学会项目(编号:2020JJX027)的成果。

摘　　要：农业“保险+期货”是将农业保险制度与期货市场风险管理功能相结合的创新模式,在风险转移方式和保险定价方法上均与传统农业保险存在较大差异。实证研究发现,相较于传统农业保险存在定价难、定价不合理的问题,“保险+期货”模式中保险精算法和随机模拟法两种定价方法具有一定的参考价值。同时,现行“保险+期货”试点的保费在一定程度上偏高,会导致农户的参保积极性和政府补贴的使用效率下降,制约该模式的可持续发展。为促进农业“保险+期货”模式的进一步完善和推广,应适当降低保险定价,使之低于期权定价;针对农业生产者的个性化需要创新金融产品;建立全国统一的农产品价格统计体系;完善期货价格机制,开发多样化产品;加大财政支持力度;提高对期货和保险公司等金融机构的监管力度。The agricultural"insurance+futures"model innovatively combines the agricultural insurance system with the risk management function of the futures market,showing significant differences in risk transfer and insurance pricing methods compared with the traditional agricultural insurance.Empirical studies have demonstrated that compared with the traditional agricultural insurance which faces difficult and unreasonable pricing,the"insurance+futures"model has two pricing methods,actuarial method and stochastic simulation method,which have a reference value.However,the high premium of the current"insurance+futures"pilot program discourages farmers'insurance willingness and decreases the efficiency of government subsidies,restricting the sustainable development of this model.To improve and promote the agricultural"insurance+futures"model,measures should be taken to adjust the insurance pricing to be lower than option pricing,innovate financial products tailored to the personalized needs of agricultural producers,and establish a nationwide unified statistical system of agricultural product prices.Furthermore,efforts should be made to improve the futures pricing mechanism,develop diversified products,increase financial support,and enhance the supervision of financial institutions such as futures and insurance companies.

关 键 词：“保险+期货” 亚式期权 蒙特卡罗随机模拟 保险精算定价 

分 类 号：F323[经济管理—产业经济]