基于满意博弈论的大面积航班延误协同恢复策略  

A Cooperative Recovery Strategy for Massive Flight Delays Based on Satisficing Game Theory

作　　者：卢婷婷[1] 刘计民 曲晨瑞 张兆宁[1] LU Tingting;LIU Jimin;QU Chenrui;ZHANG Zhaoning(College of Air Traffic Management,Civil Aviation University of China,Tianjin 300300,China;Strategic Development Department,East China Regional Air Traffic Management Bureau of Civil Aviation Administration of China,Shanghai 200335,China;CAST Zhongyu(Beijing)New Technology Development Co.,LTD.Shandong branch,Jinan 250101,China)

机构地区：[1]中国民航大学空中交通管理学院,天津300300 [2]中国民用航空华东地区空中交通管理局战略发展部,上海200335 [3]航科院中宇(北京)新技术发展有限公司山东分公司,济南250101

出　　处：《交通信息与安全》2023年第5期95-106,共12页Journal of Transport Information and Safety

基　　金：国家社会科学基金项目(22XGL001);国家自然科学基金民航联合基金重点项目(U2233209);民航安全能力建设基金项目([2022]156)资助。

摘　　要：航空运输中恶劣天气、军航活动、突发危险事件等情况常导致大面积航班延误的发生,会给机场和航空公司带来巨大经济损失,甚至可能发生机场旅客群体事件等问题,而大面积航班延误恢复问题涉及空管、机场和航空公司等多方的运行及其相关利益,因此,需要研究基于多方满意的协同恢复策略理论来指导实际运行中大面积航班延误的最优快速恢复。应用满意博弈论方法,综合考虑了延误航班的恢复对机坪管制的影响、对管制扇区和整个空中交通网络拥堵的影响,以及对航空公司的经济时间等各类成本的影响;分析延误航班恢复运行与决策的影响因素,建立保障未延误航班前提下的最大流量提供模型;以空管放行流量、机场保障容量限制及航司的延误航班恢复为满意需求原则,基于满意博弈论理论建立了大面积航班延误下空管、机场与航空公司的协同恢复策略模型。以北京首都机场某日07:00—12:30被延误起飞的50架航班在12:30—16:30时间段内航班延误恢复情况进行算例分析,结果表明:提出的模型与方法在12:30—16:30时间段内可以恢复32架航班,与实际运行中的恢复29架航班相比,航班恢复率提高了10.34%。计算得出的航班恢复优先顺序,及每架航班的待恢复时间段,可以减少航空公司延误产生的经济损失约300万元,节约时间成本约19 h,有效降低了航班调整量,大幅降低了航班延误损失,提升了航班恢复整体效益,验证了该恢复策略模型的有效性。Severe weather conditions,intervention from military activities,and other unforeseen hazards frequently lead to the massive flight delays in the aviation sector.This will bring significant economic losses for airports and airlines and may even result in problems such as incidents due to passenger crowding at airports.Recovery of massive flight delays involves the operation and related interests of multiple stakeholders,such as air traffic control,airports and airlines.Therefore,it is necessary to study a cooperative recovery strategy based on the satisfaction of the above parties to guide the optimal and rapid recovery of massive flight delays in practical airport operation.Applying the satisficing game theory method considers various costs,including the impact of the delayed flights on ramp control,congestion within control sectors,the entire air traffic network,and the economic losses of airlines.This study also analyzes the factors influencing the recovery operations and decisions for delayed flights by proposing a model that maximizes air flow while ensuring the recovery of flights without further delay.Additionally,a collaborative recovery strategy model for air traffic control,airports,and airlines under massive flight delays based on the principles of satisficing game theory is developed.The model considers the principles of air traffic control release flow,airport capacity,and the recovery of delayed flights by airlines.An illustrative case study is conducted for the recovery of 50 delayed flights that were scheduled to depart from Beijing Capital International Airport from 07:00 to 12:30.The findings show that,the proposed model and methodology facilitate the recovery of 32 flights during 12:30 to 16:30 time frame,showcasing a 10.34%increase compared to the actual recovery of 29 flights.Moreover,the estimated order of flight recovery and the time window for each flight's recovery reduce the economic losses incurred by airlines by approximately 3 million Chinese Yuan and save approximately 19 hours in tim

关 键 词：交通运输规划与管理 大面积航班延误 航班恢复策略 满意博弈论 协同决策 

分 类 号：V355.1[航空宇航科学与技术—人机与环境工程]