城市洪涝风险的多方法组合评估与应用  

Risk Assessment of Urban Flood Disasters in Hubei Province Based on Composite Weight Evaluation Method

作　　者：王德运[1,2] 冀承泽[1] 张露丹 吴祈 郭海湘 WANG Deyun;JI Chengze;ZHANG Ludan;WU Qi;GUO Haixiang(School of Economics and Management,China University of Geosciences,Wuhan 430074,China;Laboratory of Natural Disaster Risk Prevention and Emergency Management,China University of Geosciences,Wuhan 430074,China)

机构地区：[1]中国地质大学(武汉)经济管理学院,湖北武汉430074 [2]中国地质大学(武汉)自然灾害风险防控与应急管理实验室,湖北武汉430074

出　　处：《灾害学》2024年第1期96-103,共8页Journal of Catastrophology

基　　金：国家自然科学基金面上项目(72274186);湖北省自然科学基金联合基金项目(2022CFD128);国家社会科学基金项目(23AZD072)。

摘　　要：近年来,受全球气候变化与城镇化快速发展的双重影响,城市极端降水事件频发,由此引发的城市洪涝灾害常造成灾难性的生命和财产损失,给城市公共安全带来了严重威胁。由于不同评估方法中指标赋权不同,评价结果往往存在较大差异,给风险评估与区划工作带来了诸多困难。因此,通过融合不同方法的权重构建一套复合权重,进而解决不同评估方法中结论非一致性的问题,这对于提升风险评估的准确性是至关重要的。该文以湖北省为例,旨从危险性、暴露性、脆弱性和恢复性四个层面构建城市洪涝风险评估体系。首先,分别采用熵权法和层次分析法计算指标权重;之后,通过Kendall检验判断两套权重序列的一致性并给出相应的复合权重计算结果;最后以湖北省下辖8个城市的历史洪涝事件为例,对上述风险评价结果进行了验证。结果显示,与熵权法和层次分析法相比,基于复合权重的组合评价方法具有更高的准确率。In recent years,urban extreme precipitation events have become increasingly frequent due to the dual impact of global climate change and rapid urbanization.These events often trigger urban flood disasters that result in catastrophic losses of life and property,posing a serious threat to public safety in cities.Due to the different assignment of indicators in different assessment methods,there are often large differences in the evaluation results,which brings many difficulties to the work of risk assessment and zoning.Therefore,it is crucial to construct a composite weighting system that integrates different methods to address the non-consistency issue and improve the accuracy of risk assessment.Taking Hubei Province as an example,an urban flood risk assessment system are constructed from four perspectives as hazard,exposure,vulnerability,and resilience.Then,entropy weight method and analytic hierarchy process are separately used to calculate the index weights.Subsequently,the consistency of the two sets of weighting sequences is determined using Kendall's test,and corresponding composite weighting calculation results are obtained.Finally,historical flood events in the eight cities under the jurisdiction of Hubei Province are used to verify the aforementioned risk assessment results.The results showed that the composite evaluation method based on composite weighting has higher accuracy compared to the entropy weight method and analytic hierarchy process.

关 键 词：城市洪涝风险 组合评估 复合权重 加权聚类 

分 类 号：P426.616[天文地球—大气科学及气象学] X43[环境科学与工程—灾害防治] X915.5