香港地区中学文凭考试等级预测研究  

Predicted Level Study of the Hong Kong region Diploma of Secondary Education Examination

作　　者：许嘉凌 萧伟乐 席小明 HSU Chia-Ling;SIU Wai-lok;XI Xiaoming(Hong Kong region Examinations and Assessment Authority,Hong Kong 999077,China)

机构地区：[1]香港考试及评核局,中国香港999077

出　　处：《中国考试》2024年第2期33-39,101,共8页journal of China Examinations

摘　　要：为研究香港地区中学文凭考试(简称文凭试)等级预测结果,以过往文凭试结果作为依据,通过标准化程序,对2020—2023年共计146180名考生根据其校内评核成绩进行文凭试等级预测;并采用问卷调查法,基于各参与学校组织架构、教师的工作经验、公开考试阅卷经验及专业发展活动等,运用多层线性模型探讨学校属性与校内评核的关系。结果显示:中文、英文、数学、通识教育4门核心科目等级预测结果具有较高的准确度,其中英文预测结果最佳,其余3科预测结果类似;选修科目则因每年选考人数少导致文凭试成绩变化大,进而影响预测结果;多层线性模型分析显示,不同学校属性对于不同科目的校内评核具有不同的预测效果。To investigate the prediction results of the Hong Kong region Diploma of Secondary Education Examination(HKDSE)grades,a standardization procedure was carried out with reference to the historical HKDSE results,based on school internal examination data to predict a total of 146,180 candidates'2020—2023 HKDSE results.Additionally multilevel modeling analysis was used to explore the relationship between the attributes of each participating school and the school internal examination data using a survey in 2023,including the organizational structure of participating schools,the work experience of teachers,the experience of marking public exams,and the professional development activities.The results showed that the predicted grades of the four core subjects,Chinese language,English language,mathematics compulsory part and liberal studies,had higher accuracy of predicted levels than the elective subjects.Among the four core subjects,English Language displayed the best prediction accuracy,while the others yielded similar results.The elective subjects had lower prediction accuracy primarily due to fewer enrollments in schools every year,which resulted in variances in the schools'HKDSE results.Multilevel modeling analysis showed that different school attributes have different predictive effects on school internal examination of different subjects.

关 键 词：香港地区中学文凭考试 等级预测 校内评核 标准参照测验 

分 类 号：G405[文化科学—教育学原理]