基于灰色系统理论的大学生就业去向预测  

Prediction of College Students'Employment Based on Grey System Theory

作　　者：罗金焕 姚珧 杨明秋 高全归 LUO Jinhuan;YAO Yao;YANG Mingqiu;GAO Quangui(School of Physics and Electronic Engineering,Yuxi Normal University,Yuxi 653100,China;Students’Affairs Office,Yuxi Normal University,Yuxi 653100,China)

机构地区：[1]玉溪师范学院物理与电子工程学院,云南玉溪653100 [2]玉溪师范学院学生处,云南玉溪653100

出　　处：《玉溪师范学院学报》2023年第6期105-110,共6页Journal of Yuxi Normal University

基　　金：玉溪师范学院2022年教学研究与改革实践项目(项目编号:202237).

摘　　要：根据2014-2022年云南省某地方高校毕业生的就业数据,将毕业生去向划分为“已就业”“升学和入伍”“编制内就业”和“编外就业”4类,利用GM(1,1)模型,对该校2023年大学生毕业去向进行预测及误差修正,提高模型预测精度.预测结果表明,2023年整体就业率预计为(81.4±3.1)%,其中升学和入伍的人数占比为(9.95±0.80)%,编制内就业率为(4.6±3.7)%,编外就业率为(69.3±3.6)%.Based on the employment data of graduates from a university in Yunnan from 2014 to 2022,the employment of the graduates was classified into four types:"employed","further education and enlistment","in-staff employment"and"off-staff employment",and then the GM(1,1)model was used to predict the employment of graduates from this university in 2023,with the prediction error corrected for the accuracy.The results show that the overall employment rate in 2023 is expected to be(81.4±3.1)%,the proportion of graduates going on for further education and enlistment(9.95±0.80)%,the in-staff employment rate(4.6±3.7)%,and the off-staff employment rate(69.3±3.6)%.

关 键 词：GM(1 1)模型 大学生就业率 就业预测 

分 类 号：G647[文化科学—高等教育学]