考虑空间异质性的短距离上学方式选择机理  

Short-distance commuting mode selection mechanism considering spatial heterogeneity

作　　者：刘阳[1] 付庭友 石庄彬 何明卫[1] LIU Yang;FU Tingyou;SHI Zhuangbin;HE Mingwei(Faculty of Transportation Engineering,Kunming University of Science and Technology,Kunming 650500,Yunnan Province,P.R.China)

机构地区：[1]昆明理工大学交通工程学院,云南昆明650500

出　　处：《深圳大学学报（理工版）》2024年第2期202-212,共11页Journal of Shenzhen University(Science and Engineering)

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(52202381,52102378)。

摘　　要：短距离出行是学生日常出行的重要组成部分,合理引导短距离上学群体交通方式选择对于促进学生健康发展和缓解高峰期间道路交通拥堵具有重要意义.本研究以中国南京市为例,利用贝叶斯分类法识别出南京市学生的短距离出行阈值为2.7 km,在此基础上,分别构建多项logit(multinomial logit,MNL)模型与地理加权多项logit(geographically weighted multinominal logit,GWMNL)模型,探讨个人属性、出行特征、家庭特征及建成环境对短距离学生群体上学方式选择的影响及其空间异质性.结果表明,相比MNL模型,GWMNL模型具有更好的拟合度和解释能力,说明学生上学交通方式选择行为因居住位置不同存在明显差异.与居住在学校附近的低龄学生相比,核心区与近郊区较短出行距离的高龄学生更倾向于乘坐小汽车上学,而远郊区(六合区和江宁区)的高龄学生更倾向于选择积极出行(步行和自行车)和电动自行车上学.小汽车数量对学生选择积极出行、电动自行车及公共交通上学均有消极影响,且这种消极影响从市中心向外围区域逐渐增强.最近公交站距离对居住在核心区与近郊区的学生选择公共交通具有明显促进作用,而对部分远郊地区的学生选择公共交通具有抑制作用,且在南京市的北部和东部地区尤为明显.研究结果可为不同区域学生群体短距离积极出行引导策略的制定提供参考.Short-distance traveling is a vital component of students'daily commuting routines.Guiding the mode choices of short-distance school commuters is crucial for fostering healthy student development and alleviating road traffic congestion during peak hours.Using Nanjing city as a case study,this research used Bayesian classification to identify short-distance travel distance threshold for student groups and found that the short-distance travel threshold for students is 2.7 km in Nanjing.Subsequently,a multinomial logit(MNL)model and a geographically weighted multinomial logit(GWMNL)model were constructed to explore the effects of personal attributes,travel characteristics,family characteristics,and built environments on the mode choices of schooling for groups of short-distance students,considering spatial heterogeneity.The results show that the GWMNL model exhibits superior fitting and explanatory power compared to the MNL model,indicating significant differences in students'commuter travel mode choice behaviors depending on their residential locations.For instance,when compared to younger students residing closer to their schools,senior students in urban and suburban areas,despite having shorter travel distances,are more likely commute by cars.Conversely,senior students in exurban areas,such as Liuhe and Jiangning districts,tend to prefer active travel and electric bikes for their school commute.The number of cars shows a negative correlation with students'preferences for active travel,electric bikes and public transport when commuting to school.This negative impact progressively intensifies from the city center towards the outskirts.Additionally,the distance to the nearest bus stop has a positive effect on students'choice of public transport in the urban and suburban areas.However,this positive impact turns negative in some more remote exurban areas,particularly in the northern and eastern parts of Nanjing.The findings of this study provide valuable insights for the development of active travel(walking and cyclin

关 键 词：交通工程 上学方式选择 学生通学 地理加权多项logit模型 空间异质性 短距离出行 

分 类 号：U491[交通运输工程—交通运输规划与管理] F512.99[交通运输工程—道路与铁道工程]