传染病动力学模型在新型冠状病毒感染中应用的研究进展  

Research progress in the application of infectious disease dynamics models in COVID-19

作　　者：王舒颖 王欣[1,2] 于浩 曾强 WANG Shuying;WANG Xin;YU Hao;ZENG Qiang(School of Public Health,Tianjin Medical University,Tianjin 300070,China;不详)

机构地区：[1]天津医科大学公共卫生学院,天津300070 [2]天津市疾病预防控制中心

出　　处：《医学动物防制》2024年第2期178-181,共4页Journal of Medical Pest Control

基　　金：天津市公共卫生科技重大专项(21ZXGWSY00010);天津市医学重点建设学科(TJYXZDXK-066B);境外输入性新冠肺炎的快速风险识别、评估及预警的研究天津市卫生健康科技项目(TJWJ2022MS046)。

摘　　要：2019年底新型冠状病毒感染疫情的出现给中国及世界造成了极大影响。传染病动力学模型因其可以揭示传染病的特征并预测其传播趋势,被广泛应用于新型冠状病毒感染疫情的预测。目前应用较广泛的传染病动力学模型是仓室模型,其结构相对简单,数据无需太过复杂,应用于早期疫情预测,但缺乏对不同个体间交互作用的考量。微观个体模型和集合种群模型克服了上述不足。微观个体模型从微观个体层面考虑了个体接触交互的异质性,但计算复杂、计算量庞大;集合种群模型考虑了种群的移动性和种群内部个体的异质性,但需要庞大的人类地理位置信息网络来构建模型。本文针对三种不同传染病动力学模型在疫情中的应用进行概述,通过比较不同模型的优缺点,探寻从多水平上建立精准预测重大突发急性传染病传播动态的综合传染病动力学模型的可能性,以期为形成快速有效的防控策略提供数据支撑和理论依据。At the end of 2019,the emergence of the COVID-19 epidemic had a great impact on China and the world.Infectious disease dynamics models are widely used in the prediction of COVID-19 epidemics because they can reveal the characteristics of infectious diseases and predict the trend of transmission.At present,the most widely used dynamic model of infectious diseases is the compartment model,of which the structure is relatively simple,and the data need not be too complex,which is convenient for early epidemic prediction application,but lacks consideration of interaction between different individuals.Micro individual model and metapopulation model overcome the above shortcomings.The micro individual model considers the heterogeneity of individual contact and interaction from the micro individual level,but the calculation is complex and the amount of calculation is huge;the metapopulation model considers the mobility of the population and the heterogeneity of individuals within the population,but it requires a huge human geographic location information network to build the model.This paper summarizes the application of three different infectious disease dynamics models in epidemic situations.By comparing the advantages and disadvantages of different models,this paper explored the possibility of establishing a comprehensive infectious disease dynamic model to accurately predict the spread of emergent acute infectious diseases at multiple levels,so as to provide data support and theoretical basis for the formation of rapid and effective prevention and control strategies.

关 键 词：新型冠状病毒感染 新型冠状病毒 传染病动力学模型 基本再生数 疫情预测 

分 类 号：R561.3[医药卫生—呼吸系统] R181.2[医药卫生—内科学]