基于改进D-S理论的多时刻空中目标威胁评估  

Multi-moment Aerial Target Threat Assessment Based on Improved D-S Theory

作　　者：李山 权文 李昉[1] 苏力德 黄呈祥 LI Shan;QUAN Wen;LI Fang;SU Lide;HUANG Chengxiang(Air Traffic Control and Navigation School,Air Force Engineering University,Xi'an 710000,China)

机构地区：[1]空军工程大学空管领航学院,西安710000

出　　处：《电光与控制》2024年第3期48-52,共5页Electronics Optics & Control

基　　金：陕西省自然科学基金(2021JM-226)。

摘　　要：针对单时刻空中目标威胁评估存在的抗干扰能力弱、可靠性不足等问题,建立一种基于改进D-S证据理论的多时刻空中目标威胁评估模型。首先,根据空战时间线,定义多时刻空中目标威胁评估时段范围;然后,在单时刻空中目标威胁等级概率分配基础上,利用D-S证据理论融合各时刻证据信息;同时,针对D-S证据理论不能处理高冲突证据的弊端及其现有改进方法计算量较大的不足,引入偏移度的概念,确定各时刻证据源权重,对加权证据进行D-S融合。数值算例表明,该模型算法复杂度低;能有效处理波动数据、稳定性强,并且可减弱高冲突证据融合对威胁评估带来的不利影响,为最终决策提供了更准确的判别依据。To address the problems of weak anti-interference capability and insufficient reliability of single-moment air target threat asssment,a multi-moment aerial target threat assessment model based on the improved D-S evidence theory is established.Firstly,the time range of multi-moment aerial target threat asessment is defined based on the air combat timeline.Then,on the basis of single-moment aerial target threat level probability assignment,the D-S evidence theory is used to fuse the evidence information of each moment.Meanwhile,to address the problems that the D-S evidence theory cannot handle high-conflict evidence and its existing improvement method is computationally intensive,the coneept of offset degree is introduced to determine the weight of evidence sources at each moment and perform D-S fusion on the weighted evidence.Numerical examples show that the model algorithm has low complexity and high stability,and can flectively handle fluctuating data.The algorithm can attenuate the adverse efects of high-conflict evidence fusion on threat assessment,providing a more accurate discriminatory basis for the final decisionmaking.

关 键 词：威胁评估 空中目标 D-S证据理论 偏移度 

分 类 号：E919[军事] TP391[自动化与计算机技术—计算机应用技术]