人口变化背景下我国城乡义务教育资源需求预测与规划  

Demand Forecasting and Planning of Compulsory Education Resource in Urban and Rural Areas of China Under the Background of Population Change

作　　者：李维 杨顺艳 许佳宾 LI Wei;YANG Shunyan;XU Jiabin

机构地区：[1]贵州师范大学教育学院,贵州贵阳550025 [2]厦门大学教育研究院,福建厦门361005 [3]焦作师范高等专科学校,河南焦作454000

出　　处：《现代远程教育研究》2024年第2期63-73,共11页Modern Distance Education Research

基　　金：福建省社会科学基金青年项目“‘十四五’时期福建农村义务教育师资保障机制问题诊断及创新研究”(FJ2021C116)。

摘　　要：人口规模和结构的变化直接影响着教育资源供需形势的变化。准确把握学龄人口的变动状况,是合理规划城乡义务教育资源的重要前提。基于第七次人口普查数据源,运用CPPS人口预测工具系统,对2023—2035年我国城乡义务教育在校生数量进行预测发现,义务教育在校生数总体上呈现下降趋势,小学阶段在校生数的下降规模呈现出城市>县镇>农村的趋势,初中阶段在校生数下降规模则呈现县镇>城市>农村的趋势。在义务教育学龄人口变动影响下,2023—2035年义务教育资源需求变化主要集中在师资、教育经费以及校舍上。师资上,义务教育阶段师资需求总体呈下降的趋势,城市、县镇、农村小学阶段的师资需求将分别下降87.60、85.46、60.44万人,城市、县镇、农村初中阶段的师资需求将分别下降68.77、83.28、22.10万人;教育经费上,小学、初中阶段教育经费需求的涨幅分别为15.41%和5.96%;校舍上,城市、县镇小学仍有一定的缺口,农村小学、县镇和农村初中则将出现大量校舍闲置状况。基于此,可通过构建城乡义务教育资源跨周期调节机制、促进城乡教师队伍协调高质量发展、健全义务教育经费保障机制、分类科学合理规划利用闲置校舍等策略,应对人口变化给我国城乡义务教育带来的资源需求变动。Changes in population size and structure directly affect the supply and demand of educational resources.Accurately grasping the changes in the school-age population is an important prerequisite for rational planning of urban and rural compulsory educational resources.Based on the data of the 7th Population Census,by using CPPS population prediction tool system,it is found that the number of students enrolled in compulsory education in urban and rural areas of China from 2023 to 2035 shows a downward trend on the whole,with the decline scale of students in primary school showing a trend of“urban>county and town>rural areas”,and the decline scale of students in junior high school showing a trend of“county>urban>rural”.Under the impact of changes in the compulsory education school-age population,the change in demand for compulsory educational resources in 2023-2035 is mainly centered on the teaching staff,education funding and school buildings.In terms of teachers,the overall demand for teachers in the compulsory education stage shows a downward trend,and the demand for teachers at the urban,county town and rural elementary school levels will fall by 876,000,854,600,and 604,400 respectively,while the demand for teachers at the urban,county town and rural junior high school levels will fall by 687,700,832,800 and 22,100 respectively.In terms of education funding,the demand for primary school and junior high school education funds will increase by 15.41%and 5.96%respectively.In terms of school buildings,there is still a certain shortage in primary schools of cities as well as counties and towns,with many unused school buildings in rural primary schools,junior high schools in counties and towns as well as rural areas.Therefore,strategies such as building a cross-cycle adjustment mechanism for urban and rural compulsory education resources,promoting the coordinated and high-quality development of urban and rural teaching staff,improving the funding guarantee mechanism for compulsory education,and categorizing th

关 键 词：城乡义务教育 人口结构 教育资源需求 教育资源规划 

分 类 号：G520.1[文化科学—教育学]