基于管控因子-SNIR模型的传染病中早期评估  

Mid-Early Assessment of Infectious Diseases Using the Controlling Factor-SNIR Model

作　　者：周潜 欧宜贵[2] 黄振[1] 王萍 ZHOU Qian;OU Yigui;HUANG Zhen;and WANG Ping(Hunan Industry Polytechnic,Changsha 410000;College of Science,Hainan University,Hankou 570228;Hunan Health Publicity and Education Information Center,Changsha 410000)

机构地区：[1]湖南工业职业技术学院,湖南长沙410000 [2]海南大学理学院,海南海口570228 [3]湖南省卫生宣传教育信息中心,湖南长沙410000

出　　处：《高等数学研究》2024年第2期48-52,共5页Studies in College Mathematics

基　　金：湖南省教育厅资助科研项目(22C0851).

摘　　要：基于SIR模型的思想,通过引入公共卫生管控因子和暂未被医学隔离的感染者群体,提出了一种对多维精确数据依赖度较低的新型微分方程模型SNIR.分别利用湖北省和全国除湖北外的中早期新冠病毒感染数据,反演推算模型参数,预测中后期疫情发展.其结果与疫情中后期观测数据吻合较好.This paper introduces a new differential equation model,SNIR,derived from the SIR model,incorporating a public health control factor and individuals infected but not in medical quarantine.The model is less reliant on multidimensional data.Using mid-early stage data on novel coronavirus infections,the parameters are calculated to predict the epidemic s mid-to-later stage development,yielding results in good agreement with observed data.

关 键 词：SIR模型 评估 

分 类 号：O29[理学—应用数学] TP391[理学—数学]