基于大数据微观模拟的企业所得税优惠政策评估  

Research on the Evaluation of Enterprise Income Tax Preferential Policies Based on Big Data Micro Simulation

作　　者：郑梦泽 万相昱[2,3] 赵大伟[4] Zheng Mengze;Wan Xiangyu;Zhao Dawei(School of Public Administration,Dongbei University of Finance and Economics,Dalian 116025,China;Institute of Quantitative&Technical Economics,Chinese Academy of Social Sciences,Beijing 100732,China;University of Chinese Academy of Social Sciences,Beijing 102488,China;Jilin University,Changchun 130012,China)

机构地区：[1]东北财经大学公共管理学院,辽宁大连116025 [2]中国社会科学院数量经济与技术经济研究所,北京100732 [3]中国社会科学院大学,北京102488 [4]吉林大学,吉林长春130012

出　　处：《数量经济研究》2024年第1期79-91,共13页The Journal of Quantitative Economics

基　　金：国家自然科学基金重大项目“宏观大数据建模和预测研究”(71991475);中国社会科学院大学人文社科类重大项目培育专项“公共政策的分配效应归宿分析与集成化微观模拟模型的研制”(02011903822004);国家税务总局吉林省税务局重点课题“数字经济时代网络直播行业税收监管研究”(2201012003002)的联合资助。

摘　　要：本文基于全国企业汇算清缴大数据及现行企业所得税税制结构和课征办法,建立能够精准追踪企业所得税具体政策措施对企业属性及行为反应微观归宿的微观模拟模型,并且应用模型对我国企业所得税优惠政策的执行效果进行研究。研究结果表明,企业所得税优惠政策可以显著改善企业经济状况,为优化我国经济结构和稳定社会发展提供了助力,对促进我国企业发展、拉动经济增长、稳定社会就业起到了积极的作用,实际作用效果与政策目标基本吻合。未来需要通过持续深化企业所得税改革、适度引导企业的税收政策行为反应等途径,进一步强化企业所得税改革对经济高质量发展的促进作用。Based on the big data of national enterprise settlement and payment,as well as the current structure and taxation methods of enterprise income tax,this article establishes a micro simulation model that can accurately track the micro incidence of specific policy measures of enterprise income tax on enterprise attributes and behavior responses.The model is applied to study the implementation effect of China's enterprise income tax preferential policies.The research results indicate that the enterprise income tax preferential policy can significantly improve the economic situation of enterprises,provide assistance for optimizing China's economic structure and stabilizing social development,and play a positive role in promoting the development of enterprises,driving economic growth,and stabilizing social employment in China.The actual effect is basically consistent with the policy objectives.In the future,it is necessary to further strengthen the promoting effect of enterprise income tax reform on high-quality economic development through continuous deepening of enterprise income tax reform,moderate guidance of enterprise tax policy responses,and other means.

关 键 词：企业所得税 减税降费 微观模拟 税收归宿 大数据 

分 类 号：F224.0[经济管理—国民经济]