基于二维云模型的城市系统地震韧性评价  

Seismic resilience evaluation of urban system based on two-dimensional cloud model

作　　者：张家铭 樊燕燕[1] 李子奇[1] ZHANG Jiaming;FAN Yanyan;LI Ziqi(School of Civil Engineering,Lanzhou Jiaotong University,Lanzhou 730070,China)

机构地区：[1]兰州交通大学土木工程学院,甘肃兰州730070

出　　处：《武汉大学学报（工学版）》2024年第3期311-321,共11页Engineering Journal of Wuhan University

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(编号:51768037)。

摘　　要：城市系统地震韧性评价是一个多指标、多因素、具有不确定性的综合评价问题。针对城市系统的特点,从危害性因素、脆弱性因素、响应能力因素3个方面构建了城市系统地震韧性综合评价指标体系。为解决指标体系中的模糊性和随机性问题,引入二维云模型,通过安全维和可恢复性维的综合评价云图反映各城市的地震韧性水平,并通过贴近度计算准确得出其评价等级。以甘肃省3个区域的城市为案例,验证了该方法的合理性和可行性,为地震韧性综合评价提供了一种新方法。验证结果表明:该模型评价结果与实际情况基本吻合;生命线工程、道路疏散能力、城市规划管理为各区域城市韧性水平较低因素,需重点关注。The evaluation of seismic resilience of urban system is a comprehensive evaluation problem with multiple indexes,multiple factors and uncertainties.According to the characteristics of urban system,this paper constructs a comprehensive evaluation index system of urban system seismic resilience from three aspects of fac-tors:hazard,vulnerability and responsiveness.In order to solve the problem of fuzziness and randomness in the in-dex system,a two-dimensional cloud model is introduced.Through comprehensive evaluation cloud images of safety and recoverability,the seismic resilience level of each city is reflected,and the evaluation grade is accurately obtained through the calculation of proximity degree.By taking three cities in Gansu Province as examples,the rationality and feasibility of this method are verified,which provides a new method for comprehensive evaluation of seismic resilience.Results show that the model evaluation results are basically consistent with the actual situation.Lifeline engineering,road evacuation capacity and city planning and management are the decisive factors for the low urban resilience in different regions,which need to be paid attention to.

关 键 词：城市系统 地震韧性 二维云模型 贴近度 

分 类 号：X915.5[环境科学与工程—安全科学]