非完全灌溉信息条件下的供水过程模拟及预警  

Simulation and Early Warning of Water Supply Process Under Incomplete Irrigation Information Conditions

作　　者：王慧 孔珂 李双 徐晶 WANG Hui;KONG Ke;LI Shuang;XU Jing(School of Water Resources and Environment,University of Jinan,Jinan 250022,Shandong,China;Jinxiuchuan Reservoir Service Office,Jinan Water Conservancy Engineering Service Center,Jinan 250112,Shandong,China)

机构地区：[1]济南大学水利与环境学院,山东济南250022 [2]济南市水利工程服务中心锦绣川水库服务处,山东济南250112

出　　处：《济南大学学报（自然科学版）》2024年第3期288-294,共7页Journal of University of Jinan(Science and Technology)

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(42007153)。

摘　　要：针对水库进行多目标供水时面临的农业非受控性以及信息不足的多目标协调问题,以济南市锦绣川水库为例,采用蒙特卡洛方法以及MIKE 11软件对水库干渠的随机灌溉过程进行模拟,根据模拟结果拟合出流量与水位推演公式并划分预警等级。结果表明:拟合出的推演公式在一定程度上能够反映随机灌溉时水库干渠沿程的流量和水位关系变化,具有预警推演功能;设置划分的初级、中级和高级3个预警等级可用于在实际供水过程中出现供水问题时进行放水方案调整,根据预警等级及时采取相应措施。To address the multi-objective coordination problem of uncontrolled agriculture and insufficient information in the case of multi-objective water supply from reservoirs,taking the Jinxiuchuan Reservoir in Jinan City as an example,Monte Carlo method and MIKE 11 software were used to simulate the random irrigation process of the main channel of the reservoir.According to the simulation results,the relationship formula between flow and water level was fitted and the early warning level was divided.The results show that the fitted deduction formula can reflect the change of the relationship between flow and water level along the main channel of the reservoir during random irrigation to a certain extent,and has the function of early warning deduction.The three early warning levels of primary,intermediate and advanced can be used to adjust the water discharge scheme when the water supply problem occurs in the actual water supply process,and take corresponding measures in time according to the early warning level.

关 键 词：多目标协调 供水预警 蒙特卡洛法 非完全信息 数值模拟 

分 类 号：TV213.4[水利工程—水文学及水资源] TV697.1