城市小汽车用户公交使用的影响因素分析  

Influencing Factors on the Use of Bus by Urban Car Users

作　　者：何明卫[1] 纳静笠 朱权 荀丽梅 HE Mingwei;NA Jingli;ZHU Quan;XUN Limei(Faculty of Transportation Engineering,Kunming University of Science and Technology,Kunming 650504,Yunnan,China;Kunming Urban Transport Research Institute,Kunming 650541,Yunnan,China)

机构地区：[1]昆明理工大学交通工程学院,云南昆明650504 [2]昆明市城市交通研究所,云南昆明650541

出　　处：《重庆交通大学学报（自然科学版）》2024年第5期99-105,共7页Journal of Chongqing Jiaotong University(Natural Science)

基　　金：云南省基础研究计划资助项目(202001AT070030)。

摘　　要：引导小汽车用户使用公交有助于缓解城市交通拥堵和推动交通领域节能减排。采用昆明市小汽车用户出行调查数据,基于随机森林模型探究建成环境、公交服务质量、个人社会经济属性对小汽车用户公交使用的影响。研究表明:建成环境是影响小汽车用户公交使用的最重要因素,相对重要性之和为53.7%,路网密度、土地利用混合度、居住区位、公交站点数量与小汽车用户公交使用密切相关;个人社会经济属性相对重要性之和为24.9%,家庭年收入变量相对重要性最高(5.2%);公交服务质量相对重要性之和为21.4%,分别为便利性(5.8%)、舒适性(5.6%)、可靠性(5.2%)、安全性(4.8%);建成环境对小汽车用户公交使用具有非线性影响且非线性影响在不同收入水平的小汽车用户之间存在差异。研究结果有助于更好理解小汽车用户的公交使用行为,从而采取针对性策略促进小汽车用户使用公交。Guiding car users to use bus can help alleviate urban traffic congestion and promote energy conservation and emission reduction in the transportation field.Using travel survey data for car users in Kunming City,a random forest model was employed to explore the impact of built environment,bus service quality and individual socio-economic attributes on the use of bus by car users.Research indicates that the built environment is the most important factor influencing the use of bus by car users,with a relative importance sum of 53.7%.Road network density,land use mix,residential location,and the number of bus stops are closely related to the use of bus by car users.Individual socio-economic attributes have a relative importance sum of 24.9%,with the family income variable having the highest relative importance(5.2%).The sum of the relative importance of bus service quality is 21.4%,which is convenience(5.8%),comfort(5.6%),reliability(5.2%)and safety(4.8%),respectively.The impact of the built environment on the use of bus by car users is nonlinear,and there are differences in the nonlinear effects between car users with different income levels.The research results contribute to a better understanding of the bus usage behavior by car users,thus the targeted strategies will be adopted to promote their use of buses.

关 键 词：交通运输工程 城市交通 建成环境 非线性 随机森林 公交使用 

分 类 号：U491[交通运输工程—交通运输规划与管理]