空间滞后模型在新疆地区HIV/AIDS报告率影响因素生态学研究中的应用  

Application of spatial lag model in ecological study on influencing factors of human immunodeficiency virus/acquired immune deficiency syndrome reporting rate in Xinjiang

作　　者：阿提开木·吾布力[1] 王倩[1] 姚雪梅[1] 戴江红[1] Atikaimu Wubuli;WANG Qian;YAO Xuemei;DAI Jianghong(School of Public Health,Xinjiang Medical University,Urumqi 830054,Xinjiang,China)

机构地区：[1]新疆医科大学公共卫生学院,乌鲁木齐830054

出　　处：《中国性科学》2024年第5期148-152,共5页Chinese Journal of Human Sexuality

基　　金：新疆维吾尔自治区自然科学基金联合基金项目(2016D01C189)。

摘　　要：目的应用空间滞后模型分析影响新疆地区人类免疫缺陷病毒(HIV)/艾滋病(AIDS)报告率的社会人口学因素,探讨该模型在AIDS流行病学中的应用价值。方法利用Geoda软件对新疆85个区县2007年—2015年HIV/AIDS报告率与社会人口学因素进行空间回归模型分析。结果多重线性回归(OLS)模型显示回归残差存在空间自相关性(Moran′s I=0.2867,P<0.001),参照拉格朗日乘数(LM)检验,最后选用空间滞后模型(SLM)进行数据分析。SLM中空间滞后项差异具有统计学意义(P<0.001),即HIV/AIDS报告率存在正的空间自相关性。HIV/AIDS报告率与人口数呈正相关,与农业人口比例呈负相关。与传统OLS模型相比,SLM的调整R^(2)上升,对数似然比的绝对值和赤池信息量准则(AIC)值下降,提示拟合效果更好。结论人口多和城镇化比例高的地区HIV/AIDS报告率较高。SLM在AIDS影响因素的生态学研究中有推广价值。Objective To analyze the sociodemographic factors affecting the human immunodeficiency virus/acquired immunedeficiency syndrome(HIV/AIDS)reporting rate with spatial lag model,and to explore the application value of this model in HIV/AIDS epidemiology.Methods Geoda software was used for the spatial regression analysis of HIV/AIDS report rate and social demographic factors in 85 counties in Xinjiang during 2007 to 2015.Results Ordinary least square(OLS)showed the spatial autocorrelation of regression residuals(Moran′s I=0.2867,P<0.001),and the spatial lag model(SLM)was selected based on lagrange multiplier(LM)tests.The SLM showed that the spatial lag terms were statistically significant(P<0.001),which means there was a positive spatial autocorrelation of HIV/AIDS reporting rate."Population"was positively correlated to the HIV/AIDS reporting rate,while"proportion of agricultural population"was negatively correlated.Compared to traditional OLS model,the SLM had better fitting effect with increased adjusted R^(2) and decreased logarithmic likelihood ratio and Akaike information criterion(AIC)value.Conclusions HIV/AIDS reporting rate was higher in areas with large population and high proportion of urbanization.The SLM is valuable to popularize in ecological study on influencing factors of HIV/AIDS.

关 键 词：人类免疫缺陷病毒 艾滋病 空间滞后模型 新疆 

分 类 号：G479[文化科学—教育学]