低出生率背景下省域学前教育资源供需关系与动态调配——基于对中部J省人口预测的分析  

The Supply-Demand Relationship and Dynamic Allocation of Provincial Preschool Education Resources Under the Background of Low Birth Rate—Based on an Analysis of Population Prediction for the Central Province J

作　　者：冯婉桢[1] 袁一清 伍津 Feng Wanzhen;Yuan Yiqin;g Wu Jin(Faculty of Education,Beijing Normal University,Beijing 100875 China)

机构地区：[1]北京师范大学教育学部,北京100875

出　　处：《学前教育研究》2024年第5期45-57,共13页Studies in Early Childhood Education

基　　金：北京市社会科学基金规划项目“低出生率背景下北京市学前教育资源优化配置研究”(编号:22JYB013)。

摘　　要：低出生率背景下研判省域学前教育资源供需关系的变化,对优化学前教育资源配置、实现学前教育优质均衡发展具有指导意义。本研究选择省域学前教育资源配置中低供给高需求类型的中部J省作为研究对象,运用PADIS-INT软件预测分析了J省2023—2035年低、中、高三种方案下城乡在园幼儿人数的变化,调查了J省学前教育人力资源与物力资源供给现状,进而预测分析了J省学前教育资源在供给动态变化与静态不变情况下的供需关系。结果发现,随着在园幼儿人数减少,学前教育资源需求将明显减少;现有人力资源供给存在结构性短缺,未来会出现城乡配置失衡;物力资源配备已达到高水平,未来会严重过剩。根据研究结果,建议地方政府根据资源供需关系的动态变化做好学前教育长期规划,控增量、调存量、疏余量;从结构与质量入手优化人力资源配置,稳定乡村教师队伍;谨慎增加办园条件投入,采用多种形式提升物力资源使用效益。Under the background of low birth rate,it is of guiding significance to study the change of the supply-demand relationship of preschool education resources in provinces,optimizing the allocation of preschool education resources and achieving the high-quality and balanced development of preschool education.This study selected province J in central China as the research object,which is one sample of the type of low supply and high demand in the allocation of preschool education resources among provinces,and used PADIS-INT software to predict and analyze the changes in the number of preschool children in urban and rural areas under three different plans from 2023 to 2035,and investigated the current supply status of human and material resources in preschool education in province J.Furthermore,the supply and demand changes of human and material resources for preschool education in province J were predicted and analyzed under the situations of dynamic and static supply.The results showed that,the demand for preschool education resources will decrease significantly with the decreasing number of children in kindergartens.Meanwhile,there is a structural shortage in the current supply of human resources,and the imbalance of urban and rural allocation would occur in the future.Material resources have already reached a high level,and there would be a serious surplus in the future.The study suggests that local governments should make long-term plans for preschool education according to the dynamic changes in the relationship between resource supply and demand,being expected of limiting the increase,adjusting the stock,and reducing the surplus.Local governments are also encouraged to optimize the allocation of human resources from the perspectives of structure and quality,and to stabilize the rural teachers.Moreover,the increase of investment in kindergarten conditions shall be treated with distinct caution,and it is expected that various measures shall be taken to improve the efficiency of the usage of material resources.

关 键 词：学前教育资源 供需关系 低出生率 动态调配 

分 类 号：G619.2[文化科学—学前教育学]