2011—2022年无锡市新吴区恶性肿瘤死亡与减寿趋势分析  

Mortality and life loss of malignant tumors in Xinwu District,Wuxi City from 2011 to 2022

作　　者：陆绍琦 刘增超 赵学彬 李纯 LU Shao-qi;LIU Zeng-chao;ZHAO Xue-bin;LI Chun(Xinwu District Center for Disease Control and Prevention,Wuxi Jiangsu 214028,China)

机构地区：[1]无锡市新吴区疾病预防控制中心,江苏无锡214028

出　　处：《江苏预防医学》2024年第2期172-175,共4页Jiangsu Journal of Preventive Medicine

摘　　要：目的掌握无锡市新吴区居民恶性肿瘤死亡水平、过早死亡和减寿情况,预测未来变化趋势。方法收集2011—2022年恶性肿瘤死亡资料,计算粗死亡率、标化死亡率、过早死亡率、寿命损失率(PYLLR)、人均减寿年数(AYLL)等指标,用平均年度变化百分比(AAPC)评价变化趋势,用GM(1,1)模型进行预测。结果2011—2022年居民恶性肿瘤粗死亡率209.65/10万、标化死亡率101.97/10万、过早死亡率6.51%,男性分别是女性的1.81、1.64、1.95倍。总人群、男性、女性的恶性肿瘤标化死亡率(AAPC为-2.85%、-3.23%、-2.61%)、过早死亡率(AAPC为-3.13%、-3.00%、-3.15%),呈下降趋势(t值为-6.79~-1.99,P值均<0.05)。因恶性肿瘤所致PYLLR为14.25‰,AYLL为11.41年/人,恶性肿瘤PYLLR男性(17.92‰)是女性的1.68倍,AYLL男性为10.73年/人,比女性少2.00年/人;总人群和男性PYLLR(AAPC为-3.13%和-4.48%)、AYLL(AAPC为-1.64%和-2.32%)呈下降趋势(t值为-4.33~-2.37,P值均<0.05)。GM(1,1)模型预测2025年、2030年粗死亡率为193.82/10万、184.09/10万,标化死亡率为79.03/10万、67.37/10万,过早死亡率为4.97%、4.24%,AYLL为9.89年/人、9.11年/人。结论新吴区居民恶性肿瘤疾病负担仍较重,应继续加强恶性肿瘤防控工作,进一步降低恶性肿瘤死亡率。Objective To investigate the mortality,premature mortality and life loss due to malignant tumors among residents in Xinwu District,Wuxi City and to predict the trends in the mortality in the future.Methods Data pertaining to the mortality of malig-nant tumors in Xinwu District from 2011 to 2022 were collected,and the crude mortality,standardized mortality,premature mortality,po-tential years of life lost rate(PYLLR)and average years of life lost(AYLL)were calculated.The trends in mortality were evaluated from 2011 to 2022 with average annual percent change(AAPC)and predicted in 2025 and 2030 with the GM(1,1)model.Results The crude mortality,standardized mortality and premature mortality of malignant tumors were 209.65/105,101.97/105 and 6.51%among residents in Xinwu District from 2011 to 2022,and the crude mortality,standardized mortality and premature mortality of malig-nant tumors were 1.81,1.64 and 1.95 times more higher among men than among women.The standardized mortality and premature mortality of malignant tumors all appeared a tendency towards a decline among all residents(AAPC=-2.85%and-3.13%),men(AAPC=-3.23%and-3.00%)and women(AAPC=-2.61%and-3.15%)(t=-6.79 to-1.99,all P values<0.05).The PYLLR and AYLL of malignant tumors were 14.25‰and 11.41 year-persons.The PYLLR of malignant tumors was 17.92‰among men,which was 1.68 times higher than among women,and the AYLL was 10.73 years-persons among men,which reduced by 2.00 year-persons relative to women.The PYLLR and AYLL of malignant tumors all appeared a tendency towards a decline from 2011 to 2022 among all residents(AAPC=-3.13%and-1.64%)and men(AAPC=-4.48%and-2.32%)(t=-4.33 to-2.37,all P val-ues<0.05).Based on the GM(1,1)model,the crude mortality,standardized mortality,premature mortality and AYLL of malignant tumors were predicted to be 193.82/105,79.03/105,4.97%and 9.89 year-persons in 2025 and 184.09/105,67.37/105,4.24%and 9.11 year-persons in 2030.Conclusions The burden of malignant tumors remains high among residents in Xinwu District.Intensified m

关 键 词：恶性肿瘤 早死概率 潜在寿命损失 GM(1 1)模型 预测 

分 类 号：R73-31[医药卫生—肿瘤]