气象影响与风险研究进展  

Progress in Research on Meteorological Impacts and Risks

出　　处：《中国气象科学研究院年报》2023年第1期126-135,共10页Annual Report of Cams

摘　　要：1气象灾害链综合风险评估与断链减灾研究1.10相似预报原理之再认识:动力统计相似集合预报理论及其对登陆台风降水预报的应用研究进展动力统计结合是提高天气、气候预报水平的重要途径之一,关键问题是如何将数值模式与历史资料进行有效结合。相似预报这一传统方法与动力统计的结合是未来提高天气、气候预报水平的一个重要方向,尽管其原理目前仍停留在相似假设基础上且缺乏坚实的物理基础。文中从准确模式的初值问题出发,提出准确模式初值扰动概念,进而发展了动力统计相似集合预报(DSAEF)理论。DSAEF理论不仅回答了为什么可以进行相似预报,同时还指出了如何进行相似预报,即其原理是利用准确模式来做预报,并采用集合预报的方式实现预报。1 Comprehensive risk assessment of meteorological disaster chain and research on chain breakage disaster reduction 1.1 Rainstorm and high-temperature disaster risk assessment of territorial space in Beijing,China It is important for territorial spatial planning to master meteorological disaster risk under the conditions of climate change and then carry out risk adaptation planning according to local conditions.Taking Beijing,a large city in China,as an example,a meteorological disaster risk assessment model was established based on the framework of hazard factors,disaster-bearing body exposure,and vulnerability of underlying surface.Combined with 11 years of observation data from 293 high-density weather stations,the rainstorm and high-temperature risks of urban,agriculture.

关 键 词：气候预报 综合风险评估 集合预报 相似预报 物理基础 初值问题 预报原理 灾害链 

分 类 号：G63[文化科学—教育学]