人口结构变动下我国托育服务资源供需问题研究——基于2020—2035年人口变化趋势的分析  

Supply and Demand of Childcare Service Resources in China under the Change of Population Structure—Based on the Analysis of the Changing Trend of Population from 2020 to 2035

作　　者：姚致宇 陈志其 YAO Zhi-yu;CHEN Zhi-qi(School of Education Science,Kashir University 844000,China;South Xinjiang Education Development Research Center,Kashi University,Kashi 844000,China)

机构地区：[1]喀什大学教育科学学院,新疆喀什844000 [2]喀什大学南疆教育发展研究中心,新疆喀什844000

出　　处：《陕西学前师范学院学报》2024年第7期76-84,共9页Journal of Shaanxi Xueqian Normal University

基　　金：新疆维吾尔自治区高校基本科研业务费科研项目(XJEDU2023J046);自治区研究生科研创新项目(XJ2024G245);喀什大学研究生科研创新项目(KD2023KY004);南疆教育发展研究中心“师生合作”项目(NJSS2023028)。

摘　　要：大力发展托育服务对缓解我国少子化、老龄化、区域人口增减分化等人口发展现实问题具有独特的价值。运用中国人口预测系统(CPPS),采用队列要素人口预测模型,对我国2020—2035年人口变化趋势进行预测分析,科学合理测算我国托育适龄人口供求潜力,可以有效地避免托育服务各项资源配置中短缺和浪费的现象。预测结果显示:我国托育照护服务各项资源需求量呈现快速下降的趋势,至2035年左右开始缓慢上升。就供需差异而言,我国托育服务供给与需求将长期处于供不应求的状态,供给缺口量较大。主要政策建议:应建立托育服务动态人口监测系统及资源匹配机制,准确把握托育服务资源供需差异;扩宽托育服务人力资源供给有效途径,破除托育服务发展瓶颈;完善托育服务经费保障机制体制,扩充托育服务投资主体。It is of unique value to develop child-care services to alleviate the realistic problems of population development in our coun-try,such as fewer children,aging,regional population increase and decrease.By using the Chinese population prediction system(CPPS)and the cohort factor population prediction model,this study makes a forecasting analysis on the population change trend of our country from 2020 to 2035,and scientifically and reasonably calculates the supply and demand potential of the childbearing age population in our country,which can effectively avoid shortage and waste in the allocation of various child-care services resources.The results show that the demand for child-care services resources in China shows a fast-declining trend,and will start to rise slowly in 2035.As far as the difference between supply and demand is concerned,the supply and demand of child-care services in our coun-try will be in a state of short supply for a long time.Main policy recommendations:establish a dynamic population monitoring system and resource matching mechanism to accurately grasp the difference between the supply and demand of child-care services resources,expand the effective ways of human resource supply of Child-care Services,and break the bottleneck of Child-care Services Develop-ment The mechanism for ensuring funding for child-care services should be improved and the number of investors in such services should be expanded.

关 键 词：托育服务 人口预测 供需问题 CPPS 

分 类 号：G619.20[文化科学—学前教育学] C923[文化科学—教育学]