线上治理的力量——社交媒体讨论与管理层业绩预告披露策略  

The Power of Online Governance:Social Media Discussions and Management Performance Forecast Disclosure Strategies

作　　者：熊艳[1] 徐梓童 郑凯[1] YAN XIONG;ZITONG XU;KAI ZHENG

机构地区：[1]华东理工大学商学院,200237 [2]国元证券股份有限公司

出　　处：《中国会计评论》2023年第2期245-286,共42页China Accounting Review

基　　金：国家社会科学基金一般项目(22BGL076);教育部人文社会科学研究规划基金项目(21YJA630101)的阶段性成果。

摘　　要：数字经济时代下,传统公司治理的界限被打破,社交媒体大数据拓展了新型治理路径和渠道,中小投资者的治理力量日益强大。本文在管理层业绩预告披露情境下,基于2013—2017年雪球论坛的讨论帖数据,探讨中小投资者在社交媒体的线上讨论能否影响管理层业绩预告披露策略。研究发现,社交媒体在公司发布业绩预告前的发帖量越多,业绩预告精确度越高、偏差越小,且这一治理效应通过引发短期市场波动和监管介入路径实现。由于社交媒体的非专业性、非强制性特征,线上治理效应在部分情境中失效:在信息可见性低、业务复杂度高、投资者情绪消极时,投资者的信息甄别能力受限会削弱线上治理效应;在亏损压力大、国有控股、投资者保护弱的企业中,管理层反馈不足也会制约线上治理效应的发挥。最后,良好的外部法律环境能够增强社交媒体的线上治理效应。本文拓展了管理层业绩预告披露策略的影响因素研究,补充了关于中小股东积极主义的文献,为大数据赋能资本市场治理提供了新的证据和借鉴。In the era of the digital economy,the boundaries of traditional corporate governance have been broken.Social media big data has expanded new governance pathways and channels,and the governance power of small and medium-sized investors is growing.This article,in the context of management performance forecast disclosure,based on discussion post data from the Xueqiu forum from 2013 to 2017,explores whether the online discussions of small and medium-sized investors on social media can affect the disclosure strategy of management performance forecasts.The research finds that the more posts on social media before a company's management performance forecast is released,the higher the accuracy and lower the deviation of the forecast.This governance effect is realized through triggering short-term market volatility and regulatory intervention.Due to the non-professional and nonmandatory nature of social media,online governance effects may fail in certain situations:when information visibility is low,business complexity is high,and investor sentiment is strong,the ability of investors to discern information will be limited,weakening the online governance effect.In companies under significant loss pressure,state ownership,and weak investor protection,inadequate management feedback will also limit the effectiveness of online governance.Finally,a favorable external legal environment can enhance the governance effect of social media.This article expands the research on the factors influencing management performance forecast disclosure strategies,supplements the literature on small shareholders'activism,and provides new evidence and insights for empowering capital market governance with big data.

关 键 词：公司治理 社交媒体 管理层业绩预告披露策略 雪球论坛 

分 类 号：G206[文化科学—传播学] F272.91[经济管理—企业管理] F275[经济管理—国民经济]