具有媒体效应的分数阶SAIQR传染病模型  

A Fractional-order SAIQR Epidemic Model with Media Effects

作　　者：胡行华[1] 刘盈月 HU Xinghua;LIU Yingyue(College of Science,Liaoning Technical University,Fuxin 123000,China)

机构地区：[1]辽宁工程技术大学理学院,辽宁阜新123000

出　　处：《复杂系统与复杂性科学》2024年第2期80-88,共9页Complex Systems and Complexity Science

基　　金：教育部人文社科规划基金(21YJCZH204);辽宁省社科学规划基金(L22BGL028);辽宁省社科联规划基金(2022lslwtkt 069)。

摘　　要：为探究Omicron新冠病毒的传播机理,预测疫情发展趋势,建立一类具有媒体效应的Caputo-conformable分数阶SAIQR新冠肺炎传染病模型。分析模型的基本再生数、平衡点、稳定性等动力学行为,利用真实数据和非线性最小二乘方法拟合模型参数,并对参数进行敏感性分析。仿真结果表明,媒体效应参数对感染人数的降低起重要作用,调节两个分数参数相比于调节单个参数使模型数值解拥有更大的自由度。In order to explore the transmission mechanism of Omicron COVID 19 and predict the epidemic trend,a Caputo-conformable fractional-order SAIQR epidemic model with media effects is established.The basic reproduction number,equilibrium points,stability and other dynamic behaviors of the model are analyzed.The model parameters are fitted by nonlinear least squares with real data and we performed sensitivity analysis of parameters.The numerical simulation results indicate that the media effects parameters play an important role in reducing the number of infected individuals.Adjusting two fractional parameters gives the model numerical solution greater freedom compared to adjusting a single parameter.

关 键 词：SAIQR传染病模型 Caputo-conformable分数阶 媒体效应 敏感性分析 

分 类 号：O175.13[理学—数学] O29[理学—基础数学]