未来30年城市中等职业教育生源趋势及应对策略——以广州市为例  

Trends and Countermeasures of Urban Secondary Vocational Education Students in the Next 30 Years——Take Guangzhou City as an Example

作　　者：蒋慧子 彭虹斌[1] Jiang Huizi;Peng Hongbin(School of Politics and Public Administration,South China Normal University,Guangzhou 510006,China)

机构地区：[1]华南师范大学政治与公共管理学院,广州510006

出　　处：《晋阳学刊》2024年第4期61-68,共8页Academic Journal of Jinyang

基　　金：广东省哲学社会科学规划一般项目“双减背景下个体隐形校外培训的治理逻辑、过程监测与规制路径”(项目编号:GD23CJY23)。

摘　　要：高度城市化的背后,我国生育率持续走低,进入“人口负增长”时代。在国家统筹推进职业教育与普通教育协调发展的背景下,是否有足够的生源来支撑城市中等职业教育发展?文章以广州市为例,基于历年来官方公布的活产婴儿数及2020年第七次人口普查数据,预测未来30年城市中等职业教育生源变动趋势。结果显示:2023—2036年广州市高中阶段生源存在一定的波动,但对中等职业生源影响不大,然而由于2022年及以后出生人口逐年下降,2036年开始城市中等职业学校的生源或将出现萎缩。为确保城市中等职业教育持续发展,需要科学掌握高中阶段学龄人口变动趋势,做好普职分流规划;完善中高职衔接培养体系,积极推进普职融通;增强城市中职教育的适应性与吸引力。Behind the high urbanization,China's fertility rate continues to decline,entering the era of"negative population growth".Under the background that the state promotes the coordinated development of vocational education and general education,is there enough student source to support the development of urban secondary vocational education?Taking Guangzhou as an example,this paper predicts the change trend of urban secondary vocational education students in the next 30 years based on the number of live births officially announced over the years and the seventh population census data in 2020.The results show that there is a certain fluctuation in the number of high school students in Guangzhou from 2023 to 2036,but it has little impact on the number of secondary vocational students.Due to the decreasing birth rate ofter 2022,the number of urban secondary vocational schools may shrink since 2036.In order to ensure the sustainable development of urban secondary vocational education,it is necessary to scientifically grasp the changing trend of the school-age population in the senior middle school and make a good plan for the distribution of general vocational education;improve the joint training system of middle and higher vocational schools,and actively promote the integration of general vocational education;enhance the adaptability and attractiveness of urban secondary vocational education.

关 键 词：中等职业教育 城市 生源 生育率 

分 类 号：G719.2[文化科学—职业技术教育学]