疫情信息怎样影响疫情演化:一个计算实验模型  

Pandemic Information&Pandemic Process:A Model for Computational Experiment

作　　者：赵汗青 葛岩 印闯[3] 秦裕林 ZHAO Hanqing;GE Yan;YIN Chuang;QIN Yulin(School of Media and Communication,Shanghai Jiao Tong University;Institute of Psychological and Behavioral Science,Shanghai Jiao Tong University;Institute of Public Opinion Studies,Shanghai Jiao Tong University;Ko Guan Law School,Shanghai Jiao Tong University)

机构地区：[1]上海交通大学媒体与传播学院 [2]上海交通大学心理与行为科学研究院 [3]上海交通大学舆论学研究院 [4]上海交通大学凯原法学院

出　　处：《国际新闻界》2024年第5期133-159,共27页Chinese Journal of Journalism & Communication

基　　金：国家社会科学基金重点项目“模拟舆论极化的生成机制和治理策略研究”(项目编号:21AXW006)的阶段性研究成果。

摘　　要：采用基于行动者的模型(ABM),制作包含病毒特征、疫情信息传播、封控措施和资源供应的模拟系统,本研究使用计算实验探索了疫情信息在不同系统条件下对疫情演化的影响。研究发现:(1)在缺乏其他干预措施的条件下,疫情信息单独便会对疫情后果有一定影响;(2)疫情信息与其他干预措施(如资源供应和封控规模)的交互作用对疫情控制影响明显,在资源供应和封控规模适度的条件下,正面影响显著;(3)疫情信息的影响受病毒状态制约,效果依据具体情境呈现出非线性特性,增强信息传播和封控干预不一定产生更好的疫情控制效果。模拟还显示疫情信息影响复杂多变,适应所有情境的疫情信息传播、资源供应和封控措施组合十分罕见。本研究为在数据受限条件下探索疫情信息影响提供了新的路径,丰富了对疫情信息影响机制的理解。This research used an agent-based model(ABM)to create a simulation system called MAP(Media and Pandemic)to explore how epidemic information influences the trajectory of an epidemic under various system conditions.The study found that even without other interventions,epidemic information alone can impact the course of the epidemic.The interplay between epidemic information and interventions like resource supply and lockdowns significantly impacts epidemic control,especially when resources are plentiful and lockdowns are moderate.However,the effectiveness of epidemic information is contingent upon the virus'characteristics and doesn't always guarantee better control.In conclusion,optimizing epidemic control requires a balanced approach:disseminating epidemic information appropriately,coupled with effective resource allocation and well-calibrated lockdown measures.This study provides a novel framework for examining the impact of epidemic information and enhances our understanding of its influence.

关 键 词：社会模拟仿真 健康传播 人工社会 传染病模型 疫情信息 

分 类 号：R-05[医药卫生]