中国碳市场对石油天然气行业影响的实证研究  

Empirical Study on the Impact of China’s Carbon Market on the Oil and Gas Industry

作　　者：段书然 王越 段文胜[3] 康宁[3] Duan Shuran;Wang Yue;Duan Wensheng;Kang Ning(Petroleum Engineering Institute of Heriot-Watt University,Edinburgh EH144AS,UK;Minerva Hospital for Women and Children,Chengdu 610045,China;PetroChina Tarim Oilfield Company,Korla 841000,China)

机构地区：[1]赫瑞瓦特大学石油工程学院,英国爱丁堡EH144AS [2]米诺娃妇女儿童医院,成都610045 [3]中石油塔里木油田公司,新疆库尔勒841000

出　　处：《黑龙江科学》2024年第13期1-6,15,共7页Heilongjiang Science

摘　　要：油气行业因其巨大的碳排放量受碳市场的影响尤其显著。为探讨中国与试点碳市场对石油天然气行业的影响,采用分位数回归法对中国碳市场与广东省、福建省试点碳市场对原油与天然气市场的影响进行实证研究。结果显示,中国碳市场无论对原油期货与现货市场还是对天然气期货市场的影响都是积极的,广东省碳市场对原油期货与现货市场的影响都是负面的,对天然气期货市场的影响在价格低时不利、价格高时有利。湖北省碳市场对原油期货的影响是正面的,对原油现货市场的影响基本正面,对天然气期货市场的影响在价格低时有利、价格高时不利。当前中国碳市场占主导地位,对油气行业的总体影响是正面的,表明碳市场可为油气行业发展带来新的机遇。The oil and gas industry is particularly influenced by the carbon market because of its large carbon emissions.In order to explore the impact of national and pilot carbon markets on the oil and natural gas industry,empirical research is conducted on the effects of the national carbon market and the pilot carbon markets in Guangdong and Fujian on the crude oil and natural gas markets.The empirical results indicate that the national carbon market has positive impact on the oil and gas industry.The carbon market in Guangdong Province has negative influence on both the crude oil futures and spot markets,while the influence on the natural gas futures market is harmful when the price is low and beneficial when the price is high.The current national carbon market is dominant,and the overall impact on the oil and gas industry is positive,indicating that the carbon market can bring new opportunities to the oil and gas industry.

关 键 词：碳市场 碳排放 分位数回归 石油天然气行业 

分 类 号：X196[环境科学与工程—环境科学] F426.2[经济管理—产业经济] F224