基于时间序列模型ARIMA的校园供水管网暗漏检测研究  

Research on Hidden Leakage Detection of Campus Water Supply Pipe Network Based on Time Series Model ARIMA

作　　者：袁淑娟[1] Yuan Shujuan(School of Digital Information Technology,Zhejiang Technical Institute of Economics,Hangzhou,China)

机构地区：[1]浙江经济职业技术学院数字信息技术学院,浙江杭州

出　　处：《科学技术创新》2024年第17期94-97,共4页Scientific and Technological Innovation

基　　金：浙江经济职业技术学院校级项目:基于水表数据的校园供水系统智能管理(项目编号:X2022036)。

摘　　要：为了及时发现校园供水管网暗漏情况,减少水资源浪费和降低暗漏检测成本,在获取校园各区域水表数据的基础上,根据学校用水规律及特点,建立基于时间序列模型ARIMA的用水量预测模型,分析预测用水量与实际用水量之间的差异性,进而判断校园供水管网是否存在暗漏,构建校园供水管网暗漏检测模型。结果表明,基于时间序列模型ARIMA的校园供水管网暗漏检测模型判断正确率为80%,实际应用效果良好,可以作为校园供水管网暗漏检测的一种预警方法。此方法是基于水表数据的数据模型方法,省时省力省钱,并且可以拓展到其他场所使用。In order to discover the hidden leakage of the campus water supply pipe network in time,reduce loss of water resources and the water supply pipe network maintenance cost,according to the water consumption law and characteristics of the campus,the water consumption prediction model based on time series model ARIMA is established on the basis of obtaining the water meter data of each region of the campus.By Analyzing the difference between the predicted water consumption and the actual water consumption,the abnormal leakage of the water supply pipe network in the corresponding area of the campus is identified,and the hidden leakage detection model of the campus water supply pipe network is established.The results show that the identification accuracy of the model based on time series model ARIMA is 80%,the practical application effect is good,then it can be used as forewarning method for the detection of hidden leakage in campus water supply pipe network.Because this method is based on water meter data,it can save time,labor and money,and can be applied to other places.

关 键 词：时间序列模型 暗漏检测 水量预测 

分 类 号：TU991.61[建筑科学—市政工程]