碳中和背景下中美欧印2035年碳减排力度及经济代价探究  

Exploring the carbon reduction efforts and economic costs of China,the U.S.,the EU,and India in 2035 in the context of carbon neutrality

作　　者：王海林[1,2,3] 翁玉艳 潘勋章[4] WANG Haiin;WENG Yuyan;PAN Xunzhang(Institute of Energy Environment and Economy,Tsinghua University,Beijing 100084,China;Institute of Nuclear and New Energy Technology,Tsinghua University,Beijing 100084,China;Research Center for Green Economy and Sustainable Development,Tsinghua University,Beijing 100084,China;School of Ecology&Environment,Renmin University of China,Beijing 100872,China)

机构地区：[1]清华大学能源环境经济研究所,北京100084 [2]清华大学核能与新能源技术研究院,北京100084 [3]清华大学绿色经济与可持续发展研究中心,北京100084 [4]中国人民大学生态环境学院,北京100872

出　　处：《中国人口·资源与环境》2024年第6期1-8,共8页China Population,Resources and Environment

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目“碳中和目标下中国2035年国家自主贡献(NDC)更新方案和政策研究”(批准号:72174105);国家自然科学基金资助项目“碳定价机制的复杂机理与动态优化研究”(批准号:72243003)。

摘　　要：根据《巴黎协定》共同时间框架,2025年前各缔约方要提交面向2035年的新一轮国家自主贡献(NDC)。2035年的减排雄心将是连接当前NDC与长期碳中和承诺的重要纽带,对全球能否最终实现2℃/1.5℃温升控制目标具有重要意义。该研究聚焦美国、欧盟这两个碳排放量最大的发达经济体和中国、印度这两个碳排放量最大的新兴经济体,从衔接NDC与碳中和承诺的角度预估四大排放体2035年潜在的碳减排力度,并利用碳配额分配体系和可计算一般均衡模型探究对2℃/1.5℃支持情况以及减排经济代价。结果显示:(1)从NDC迈向碳中和,2035年中国单位GDP二氧化碳排放可能比2005年下降73%~77%,美国碳排放可能比2005年下降61%~67%,欧盟碳排放可能比1990年下降65%~70%,印度单位GDP二氧化碳排放可能比2005年下降51%~58%。(2)上述碳减排力度有可能支持全球2035年走上2℃温控目标碳排放路径,但若要支持走上1.5℃路径,美国和欧盟2035年要达到零碳乃至负碳排放,中国碳排放要降至50亿t左右。(3)在不合作情景下,2035年中国实现上述碳减排力度面临的GDP损失为0.36%~0.58%,与美国(0.36%~0.52%)相当,略低于欧盟(0.49%~0.80%),印度所处发展阶段相对滞后,GDP损失更易受碳减排力度影响(0.26%~0.81%);增强合作有助于以更低的经济代价实现碳减排,2035年四大排放体整体GDP损失有望从0.39%~0.65%下降至0.21%~0.41%。建议尽快深化面向2035年减排目标和实施路径的研究,进一步推动国家间应对气候变化合作交流,以助力全球实现巴黎气候目标。According to the common time frame of the Paris Agreement,all parties are expected to submit a new round of Nationally Determined Contributions(NDCs)for 2035 by 2025.Their carbon reduction efforts for 2035 will be a crucial link between the current NDCs and long-term commitments to carbon neutrality and will be of great significance to whether the world can ultimately achieve the temperature-control goal of 2°C/1.5°C.This study examines the United States(U.S.)and the European Union(EU),the two largest car-bon-emitting developed economies,along with China and India,the two largest carbon-emitting emerging economies.The aim is to infer their potential carbon reduction efforts in 2035 from the perspective of bridging NDCs and carbon neutrality pledges.This study also ex-plores the support for the 2°C/1.5°C goal and the economic costs of such efforts using a carbon allowance allocation framework and a computable general equilibrium model.The results show that:①Moving from the NDCs toward carbon neutrality,China′s carbon emis-sions per unit of GDP in 2035 could decline by 73%~77%from 2005,the U.S.carbon emissions could decline by 61%~67%from 2005,the EU carbon emissions could decline by 65%~70%from 1990,and India′s carbon emissions per unit of GDP could decline by 51%~58%from 2005.②These carbon reduction efforts may support a 2°C-consistent global carbon emissions pathway in 2035.How-ever,to support a 1.5°C-consistent global pathway,the U.S.and the EU would have to achieve zero or even negative carbon emissions in 2035,and China would have to reduce its carbon emissions to about 5 Gt CO2.③In a non-cooperation scenario,China would face a GDP loss of 0.36%~0.58%in 2035 to achieve the above carbon reduction efforts,which is comparable to that of the U.S.(0.36%~0.52%)and slightly lower than that of the EU(0.49%~0.80%).Being at a relatively lagging stage of development,India would have a GDP loss(0.26%~0.81%)more susceptible to carbon reduction efforts.Enhancing cooperation can help achieve carbon reduction

关 键 词：2035年碳减排 国家自主贡献 碳中和 碳配额 GDP损失 

分 类 号：X24[环境科学与工程—环境科学]