黄河流域城市群新型城镇化-生态安全-公共健康协调发展研究  

Research on coordinated development of new urbanization,ecological security,and public health in the Yellow River Basin urban agglomeration

作　　者：孙斌[1] 杜松朴 薛建春[1] 姜慧敏 SUN Bin;DU Songpu;XUE Jianchun;JIANG Huimin(School of Economics and Management,Inner Mongolia University of Science and Technology,Baotou 014010,China)

机构地区：[1]内蒙古科技大学经济与管理学院,内蒙古包头014010

出　　处：《资源开发与市场》2024年第9期1298-1306,共9页Resource Development & Market

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(编号:42061051);内蒙古自然科学基金项目(编号:2021LHMS07002);内蒙古研究生科研创新项目(编号:S20231175Z);内蒙古自治区直属高校基本科研业务费项目(编号:2024XKJX029)。

摘　　要：为改善黄河流域生态环境、加强黄河治理保护、促进沿黄地区高质量发展,选取2002-2021年黄河流域7个城市群60个地级市(州)的面板数据,运用熵权法、综合评价模型、耦合协调度模型和BP神经网络模型分析探讨了黄河流域7个城市群的新型城镇化-生态安全-公共健康协调发展状况及其时空演化特征与未来发展趋势。结果表明:①2002-2021年黄河流域城市群新型城镇化、生态安全和公共健康子系统发展水平均有所提升;②新型城镇化-生态安全-公共健康系统耦合协调水平总体上呈现波动增长态势,在整体格局上,位于黄河流域中下游的山东半岛城市群和中原城市群系统发展水平较好,而其他城市群则较差;③预测2022-2026年黄河流域各城市群新型城镇化-生态安全-公共健康系统协调水平将整体显著提升。根据评估与预测结果,提出了相应的对策建议。To improve the ecological environment of the Yellow River Basin,strengthen Yellow River governance and protection,and promote high-quality development in the Yellow River Basin region,this paper selected panel data from 60 prefecture-level cities(prefectures)in 7 urban agglomerations in the Yellow River Basin from 2002 to 2021.The entropy weight method,comprehensive evaluation model,coupling coordination degree model,and BP neural network model were applied to analyze and explore the coordinated development status and spatiotemporal evolution characteristics of new urbanization,ecological security,and public health in the 7 urban agglomerations of the Yellow River Basin,as well as their future development trends.The results showed that:①The development levels of new urbanization,ecological security,and public health subsystems in the urban agglomerations of the Yellow River Basin had generally improved from 2002 to 2021.②The coupling coordination level of the new urbanization-ecological security-public health system showed a fluctuating growth trend overall.In the overall pattern,the development levels of the Shandong Peninsula urban agglomeration and the Central Plains urban agglomeration,located in the middle and lower reaches of the Yellow River Basin,were relatively good,while other urban agglomerations were relatively poor.③It was predicted that the coordination level of the new urbanization-ecological security-public health system in each urban agglomeration in the Yellow River Basin would significantly improve overall from 2022 to 2026.Based on the evaluation and prediction results,corresponding policy recommendations were proposed.

关 键 词：新型城镇化—生态安全—公共健康 BP神经网络模型 耦合协调机制 黄河流域城市群 

分 类 号：F291[经济管理—国民经济] X24[环境科学与工程—环境科学]