人口负增长时代教育资源的供需匹配研究  

The Matching of Supply and Demand of Educational Resources in the Era of Negative Population Growth

作　　者：陶涛[1] 李经 金光照 TAO Tao;LI Jing;JIN Guangzhao(Center for Population and Development Studies,Renmin University of China,Beijing,100872,China;School of Statistics,Renmin University of China,Beijing,100872,China;School of Population and Health,Renmin University of China,Beijing,100872,China)

机构地区：[1]中国人民大学人口与发展研究中心,北京100872 [2]中国人民大学统计学院,北京100872 [3]中国人民大学人口与健康学院,北京100872

出　　处：《人口学刊》2024年第5期1-16,共16页Population Journal

基　　金：国家社会科学基金重点项目:人口负增长的经济后果与政策应对:国际经验及对中国的启示(22ARK001)。

摘　　要：人口负增长会对教育资源的配置产生深远影响,日本和韩国在人口负增长的冲击下,教育资源供给明显过剩,已经出现了学校关停、教师失业等问题。根据人口变动情况对教育资源进行前瞻性布局是教育强国建设的重点任务。2022年和2023年中国连续出现人口负增长,需要充分考虑生育水平迅速下降的现实和人口负增长长期持续的前景,对多学龄段人口的教育资源供需情况进行整体性考察。本文基于第七次全国人口普查数据,采用队列要素分析方法预测2020—2050年中国小学、初中、高中、高等教育的在校学生规模,并通过设定未来教育资源供给水平分析未来教育资源的供需缺口和生均配置状况。人口预测中方案显示未来全国各教育阶段在校学生规模都将经历短暂上升、持续下降、轻微回升三个阶段,呈现出梯次性、波动性负增长态势,2050年在校生规模将降至2022年的54%~67%。在人口预测中方案和教育资源供给维持2022年水平不变的情况下,小学、初中、高中、高等教育的专任教师数和学校占地面积资源将在短期内错峰出现有限的供给不足,随后分别在2024年、2031年、2035年、2037年左右开始出现过剩,预计到2050年需求量占2022年存量的六成至七成,全国各教育阶段专任教师共过剩约633.7万人,学校占地面积共过剩约3361.4平方千米;如果对教育资源供给进行拟合外推,供给过剩的节点将会提前到来。全国各教育阶段生师比将出现下降,生均教师资源将于2042年之前全部超过经合组织、欧盟和美国在2021年的水平,于10年内超过2022年北京和上海的水平。生均占地面积、图书数、学生终端数增长明显,2050年小学、初中、高中、高等教育的各类生均教育资源将分别增长至2022年全国平均水平的1.8倍、1.7倍、1.5倍和1.8倍。未来中国有机会推进教育公平、提高教育质量,但也要警惕�The negative population growth will have a profound impact on the allocation of educational resources.Under the impact of negative population growth,countries like Japan and South Korea have experienced a significant surplus in the supply of educational resources,leading to issues such as school closures and teacher unemployment.Proactively planning educational resources based on population changes is one of the key tasks in the construction of a powerful country in education.China has experi⁃enced consecutive negative population growth in 2022 and 2023,necessitating a comprehensive examina⁃tion of the supply and demand of educational resources for school-age populations,taking into account the rapidly declining fertility rates and long-term negative population growth.For this purpose,this study used the data from the seventh national population census and the cohort-component method to predict the size of the school-aged population,as well as the demand for educational resources,including full-time teach⁃ers,land area,books,and student digital terminals from elementary school to higher education in China from 2020 to 2050.The results show that the number of students in each school level will experience a hierarchical and fluctuating negative growth,going through three stages of a brief rise,continuous decline,and slight rebound.Under the medium projection scenario,the scale of students in all levels and types of education will drop to 54%~67%of the 2022 level by 2050,the number of full-time teachers and the school land area resources for primary schools,junior high schools,high schools,and higher education will experience a limited supply shortage in the short term,and then start to surplus around 2024,2031,2035,and 2037,respectively.It is expected that by 2050,the demand will account for 60%~70%of the 2022 stock,with a total surplus of about 6.337 million full-time teachers and a total surplus of about 3,361.4 square kilometers of school land area;if educational resources are extrapolated by fitting,the p

关 键 词：人口负增长 学龄人口 教育资源 队列要素预测 

分 类 号：C924.24[社会学—人口学]