大树底下好乘凉?——组织间依赖结构视角下产业链感知风险分析  

“A Good Ride Under a Big Tree?”-Perceived Risk Analysis of the Industrial Chain from the Perspective of Interorganizational Dependency Structure

作　　者：俞荣建[1,2] 白伟 贾爱武[3] Yu Rongjian;Bai Wei;Jia Aiwu

机构地区：[1]浙江工商大学工商管理学院(MBA学院),浙江杭州310018 [2]浙江工商大学中国链研究中心,浙江杭州310018 [3]浙江工商大学外语学院,浙江杭州310018

出　　处：《社会科学战线》2024年第9期135-145,282,共12页Social Science Front

基　　金：国家自然科学基金面上项目(71973129);浙江省科技计划项目一般软科学研究项目(2023C35015)。

摘　　要：大变局冲击下,全球产业链急剧动荡,中国企业面临巨大的产业链风险。相比客观风险,企业所感知的产业链风险分析更具有战略前瞻性。中国企业产业链感知风险很大程度上来源于对跨国公司这棵“大树”的依赖。文章利用产业链上下游企业间交易数据和企业年报管理层分析的文本数据,采用BERT模型的深度学习方法,基于关系风险和情境风险两个理论维度,对企业的产业链感知风险进行特征提取、模型预训练和测度。文章从组织间依赖结构视角检验组织间依赖对中国企业产业链感知风险的影响机制,研究发现:中国企业越依赖跨国公司,其所感知的关系风险越大,而情景风险越小;企业创新能力会弱化组织间依赖和两种风险之间的显著关系。研究拓展了产业链感知风险测度的深度学习方法,揭示了组织间依赖结构对企业感知风险的影响机制,对产业链风险研究理论和方法论探索,以及产业链安全提升实践具有重要的启示意义。The global industrial chain is undergoing significant turbulence due to major shifts,posing substantial risks to Chinese enterprises.Compared to objective risks,the analysis of perceived industrial chain risks by enterprises offers more strategic foresight.A considerable portion of these perceived risks stems from Chinese enterprises'reliance on the"big tree"of multinational corporations.Does this reliance provide greater security,or does it harbor hidden dangers?This study leverages transaction data between upstream and downstream enterprises within the industrial chain,as well as textual data from management analyses in annual reports,employing a novel deep learning approach based on the BERT model.This method allows for feature extraction,model pre-training,and measurement of perceived industrial chain risks,focusing on the theoretical dimensions of relational risk and contextual risk.Furthermore,from the perspective of inter-organizational dependence,this research examines the mechanisms through which such dependence influences Chinese enterprises'perceived industrial chain risks.The findings reveal two key insights:First,the greater the dependence of Chinese enterprises on multinational corporations,the higher the perceived relational risk,but the lower the contextual risk.Second,the innovation capacity of firms attenuates the significant relationship between interorganizational dependence and these two types of risks.This study advances the methodology of deep learning for measuring perceived industrial chain risks,uncovers the impact mechanisms of inter-organizational dependence structures on firms'risk perceptions,and provides valuable insights for the theoretical exploration of industrial chain risk and the practice of enhancing industrial chain security.

关 键 词：产业链风险 组织间依赖 资源依赖理论 深度学习 

分 类 号：F062.9[经济管理—政治经济学]