物证鉴定范式发展(二):贝叶斯似然比框架  

Forensic Paradigm Development.Part 2:Bayesian Likelihood Ratio Framework

作　　者：王桂强 WANG Guiqiang(Institute of Forensic Science,Ministry of Public Security,Beijing 100038,China)

机构地区：[1]公安部鉴定中心,北京100038

出　　处：《刑事技术》2024年第5期441-455,共15页Forensic Science and Technology

摘　　要：物证鉴定结果解释范式正在经历从传统明确结论范式向物证鉴定似然比范式的转换过程。以DNA物证鉴定为典型代表的物证鉴定似然比范式提升了物证鉴定意见证据的有效性,并变革了物证鉴定意见证据的推理证明模式。物证鉴定似然比范式以贝叶斯似然比框架为基础,在代表案件控辩双方主张的一对对立的来源或行为命题下分配物证结果的似然比(likelihood ratio,LR),并将该LR作为物证结果相对支持控辩双方主张的证据价值,提供物证结果LR意见证据以帮助决策者推断和确定有争议的来源或行为命题事实。物证鉴定似然比范式在科学基础、意见形成、表述、理解和推理应用等方面,完全不同于传统物证鉴定范式,这给物证鉴定人员和刑事诉讼的决策者提出了新要求,并带来了巨大挑战。The interpretation paradigm of forensic findings is undergoing a shift from the traditional paradigm of categorical conclusions to t he likelihood ratio paradigm of forensic fi ndings.The forensic likelihood ratio paradigm,DNA evidence as a typical one,has improved the validity of forensic opinions and transformed the reasoning and proof mode of forensic opinions.The forensic likelihood ratio paradigm is based on the Bayesian likelihood ratio framework.The likelihood ratio(LR)of the forensic findings is assigned under a pair of opposing source or active propositions advocated by the prosecution and defense,and the LR is used as the evidence value of forensic fi ndings relatively supporting the propositions of both prosecution and defense parties.It provides LR opinions of forensic fi ndings to help decision-makers infer and determine disputed propositional facts on the source or active level.The forensic likelihood ratio paradigm is completely different from traditional paradigms in terms of scientifi c basis,opinion formation,expression,understanding,and reasoning application,which poses new requirements and huge challenges for forensic examiner and decision-makers in criminal proceedings.

关 键 词：物证鉴定 范式 概率 贝叶斯似然比 证据价值 

分 类 号：DF794[政治法律—诉讼法学]