碳中和目标下我国转型金融风险测度及应对研究——以火力发电企业为例  

Measuring and Responding to Transitional Financial Risks under Carbon Neutrality Goals:A Case Study of Thermal Power Enterprises

作　　者：中国人民银行陕西省分行课题组 Research Group of Shaanxi Branch of the People's Bank of China

机构地区：[1]中国人民银行陕西省分行,陕西西安710075

出　　处：《上海金融》2024年第6期12-27,共16页Shanghai Finance

摘　　要：本文阐述我国低碳转型相关金融风险的生成原理和传播路径,并据此测度风险大小及其传播效应。研究结果显示:2025-2060年,不同低碳转型情景下,火电企业违约概率年平均值为4.28%(“现有政策”情景)至35.31%(“发散净零排放”情景)。构建网络模型测度转型金融风险传播,发现:2025-2060年,不同低碳转型情景下,低碳转型金融风险传播总损失平均值为0.81万亿至6.43万亿元,因转型风险传播造成的总损失与金融机构总资产之比的年平均值为0.06%至0.54%。建议做好低碳转型与金融风险防控之间的平衡,妥善应对高碳资产搁浅的潜在风险,应实施“先立后破”的低碳转型路径,发挥市场在经济绿色低碳转型中基础性作用。This paper explains the generation principles and transmission pathways of financial risks associated with China's low-carbon transition,and accordingly measures the magnitude and propagation effects of these risks.The study results show that,between 2025 and 2060,under different low-carbon transition scenarios,the annual average default probability of thermal power enterprises ranges from 4.28%("existing policies"scenario)to 35.31%("divergent net-zero emissions"scenario).A network model is constructed to measure the transmission of transitional financial risks,revealing that,from 2025 to 2060,the average total loss due to the transmission of low-carbon transition financial risks ranges from 0.81 to 6.43 trillion yuan.The annual average ratio of total losses due to transition risk transmission to total assets of financial institutions ranges from 0.06%to 0.54%.It is recommended to balance low-carbon transition with financial risk prevention,properly address the potential risks of high-carbon asset stranding,implement a"build first,dismantle later"low-carbon transition path,and leverage the fundamental role of the market in the economic green low-carbon transition.

关 键 词：金融风险 违约概率 碳中和 网络模型 高碳企业 

分 类 号：F932.59[经济管理]